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(Post 1 of 4623) 05/30/1999.10:39:00 |
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I am new to investing in the share market and recently bought some UOL Warrant. Found the following announcement but do not exactly know what they mean and how does it work, can anyone kindly enlighten me ? Is it worth holding on or to sell the warrant ? Appreciate anyone could share. UNITED OVERSEAS LAND LTD Issue of up to 192; 981; 891 warrants ("Warrants") to subscribe for up to 192; 981; 891 new ordinary shares of S$1.00 each to be immediately converted into new stock units of S$1.00 each ("New Stock Units") in the capital of United Overseas Land Limited (the "Company") to be offered to stockholders of the Company ("Stockholders") by United Overseas Bank Limited; on a renounceable preferential basis in the proportion of three (3) Warrants for every ten (10) existing stock units of S$1.00 each in the capital of the Company held by Stockholders as at a books closure date to be determined by the Directors of the Company (the "Warrant Offer"); in conjunction with a transferable loan facility ("TLF") with embedded bond call option for the issue of bonds (the "Option Bonds") and a bond issue (the "Bond Issue") for the issue of bonds (the "Issue Bonds") in the aggregate principal amount of S$300 million. Further to the announcement dated 11 May 1999, the Directors of the Company are pleased to announce that in-principle approval of the Stock Exchange of Singapore Limited has been obtained for the listing and quotation of the Warrants, the New Stock Units and the Option Bonds and the Issue Bonds (collectively the "Bonds"). The TLF, the Bond Issue and the Warrant Offer is subject to the approval of Stockholders being obtained at an extraordinary general meeting ("EGM") of the Company to be held on a date to be announced later and subject to the execution of the relevant issue documents in relation to the TLF and the Bond Issue. A circular setting out the details of the TLF, the Bond Issue and the Warrant Offer and the Notice of EGM will be sent to Stockholders in due course. By order of the Board. Foo Thiam Fong Wellington Company Secretary Singapore, 28 May 1999 Submitted by Foo Thiam Fong Wellington, Company Secretary on 28/05/1999 to the SES |
| (Post 2 of 4623) 06/13/1999.21:04:00 |
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UOB keep on buying whenever the price is under S$1.70. In the bull market, it's warrant is a good try. |
| (Post 3 of 4623) 06/30/1999.18:00:00 |
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Bought this at $1.91 today. Yes, UOB continues to buy the shares over the past year and now owns 43% of UOL. This is a good property and hotel counter. Its prized assets are United Square, Odeon Towers, UOL Building, Tiong Bahru Plaza and the proposed Novena Square. For more info on these properties and on the company, visit their website at http://www.uol.com.sg/ Recently, UOL also arranged through UOB a put option to acquire Tangs Departmental Store Complex in Orchard Road at a cost of $210 mil in the event of default in the loan payments offered to CK Tang. UOL also owns 75% of Hotel Plaza. With Hotel Plaza at 92cts and 200 mil shares in issue, this stake is worth $138 mil. Interestingly, today Hotel Plaza just announced the acquisition of the Park Royal Hotels in KL and Penang. Park Royal (near Bukit Bintang Rd) is one of my favourite hotels in KL. The warrants that come free with this share also makes it attractive though I would not have bought these shares just for the warrants. Thanks Hannie for posting the announcement on the warrants in late May. Basically a shareholder will be entitled to 3 warrants for every 10 shares held. These warrants are priced at $1 each and cost 31cts. Hence, at $1.91, the intrinsic value of these warrants is 60cts. As one gets 3 warrants for every 10 shares, the current value of the warrant privilege is 0.3 times 60cts = 18cts. In other words, getting the shares now will give you a 18cts discount to the current share price...assuming that the share price holds, ex warrants. I frankly think that this share has tremendous upside potential. The current stated NTA is $2.64. UOL has a policy of valuing its assets yearly and last year, there was a significant downward valuation of its assets. Interestingly, this policy does not apply to its hotel division under Hotel Plaza which I believe is valued at cost. Lastly, I expect the play on properties to continue and any property warrant, especially one of a laggard like this one, will command a respectable premium on top of the intrinsic value of the warrant. In other words, I feel that the price of the warrant should be in the region of $1.20 (of which one pays UOL 31cts for the previlege) The other interesting thing about UOL is what UOB wants to do with this. It is interesting that they are issuing this $300 mil bond in relation to the issue of the warrants. It suggest to me that UOB may want to make UOL more independent financially as it has depended on UOB in the past for financing. I think that a restructuring is not far away and I will not be surprised if UOL is sold off.... |
| (Post 4 of 4623) 06/30/1999.21:11:00 |
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Oldman, When is the ex-warrant date? I also wish to find out from you HOW one can buy the EXCEL rights without buying the mother share? Thanks. |
| (Post 5 of 4623) 06/30/1999.21:53:00 |
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Ex warrant date : 7th July Buy-In Last Cum Date Jul 14 1999 Record Date Jul 13 1999 As for Excel rights, it should be listed as Excel R or something like that. Excel R400 are for the odd lots. |
| (Post 6 of 4623) 07/02/1999.12:47:00 |
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Actually UOL has a 2001 warrant that is currently priced at 93cts. The exercise price for this is 1.60. Hence, for the new warrant which has an exercise price of $1 and a longer expiry date (not sure exactly how long...usually between 3 and 5 years), using this yardstick, it should be priced at around 93 + 60 = $1.56. As this is close to the price of the mother share, a reasonable price may be around $1.35 to $1.40. |
| (Post 7 of 4623) 07/02/1999.20:54:00 |
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Oldman: Do they still send propectus to shareholders to subscribe for the warrants? Ex-warrant date is 7 July 99 - if someone buys on 7 July 99, is he entitled to the warrants? Also what are the meanings of the following: Buy-In Last Cum Date Jul 14 1999 Record Date Jul 13 1999 Thanks. |
| (Post 8 of 4623) 07/03/1999.15:33:00 |
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I must thank Lee for alerting me on a mistake I made with the analysis of this share. The exercise price and life of the warrant has yet to be fixed. This is an extract from the SES posting: Each Warrant will entitle its holder upon exercise thereof at any time during a period not exceeding five years from the date of issue of the Warrants, to subscribe for one New Share at an exercise price ("Exercise Price") which is pegged at a discount to the weighted average of the last transacted price per Stock Unit (rounded down to the nearest cent) quoted on Stock Exchange of Singapore Ltd ("SES") for the last 5 consecutive market days immediately preceding the price fixing date (which date is to be determined by UOB Asia, UOB and the Company), subject to a minimum Exercise Price of S$1.00. Hence, there really isn't any free lunch with respect to the warrant. Nevertheless, if the warrant is priced at a discount, let's say $1.50 and one has to pay 31cts for each warrant, there is still upside potential for the warrant as this warrant will now give a good gearing and a higher premium is expected...though not in the amounts that I have described previously. As for me, I feel that the shares by itself is undervalued and still has upside and will continue holding on. Once again, many thanks to Lee. Goes to show that teamwork is always better than one person's. |
| (Post 9 of 4623) 07/06/1999.23:57:00 |
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To : Oldman UOL's Ex-Warrant date is 7 July 1999. If I buy the share tomorrow, will I be entitled to the warrant ? Please also advise what is :- Buy-In Last Cum Date Jul 14 1999 Record Date Jul 13 1999 Thank you. |
| (Post 10 of 4623) 07/07/1999.00:00:00 |
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To : Oldman UOL's Ex-Warrant date is 7 July 1999. If I buy the share tomorrow, will I be entitled to the warrant ? Please also advise what is :- Buy-In Last Cum Date Jul 14 1999 Record Date Jul 13 1999 Thank you. |
| (Post 11 of 4623) 07/07/1999.03:05:00 |
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Hannie, when it goes x-warrants, you will not get the warrants. |
| (Post 12 of 4623) 07/10/1999.21:14:00 |
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The free warrant will have an exercise price of $1.25. However, if one compares this to the existing warrant which is priced at 70cts and expires in 2001 and the exercise price is $1.50, then it is likely that this new warrant is priced at about 90cts. Take the 31cts subscription price away and one gets around 60cts value per warrant. |
| (Post 13 of 4623) 07/10/1999.21:31:00 |
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Unable to find the announcement in the SES home page. Is it there? Plse also advise the expiry date of the new warrants, For five years. The share price for UOL dropped very much more than the other property counters. I noticed that the price reached a high $1.77 on Friday but closed at $1.68 (6 cents lower than the previous days). Do you think that someone is trying to depress the share price so as to obtain a more favourable warrant exercise price? Your kind advice, please. |
| (Post 14 of 4623) 07/11/1999.01:06:00 |
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Found the announcement in ses.com.sg. Very small print at the bottom. Appreciate your comments to my second question on the share price. |
| (Post 15 of 4623) 07/11/1999.06:06:00 |
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No, there is no mention of the expiry date though this should be between 3 and 5 years. If you take the 60cts value and it was a 3 for 10 'warrant rights', then each share should be worth 20cts before the x rights. As it was hovering around $1.95, the x rights price of $1.75 is OK. Yes, that was why I was not concerned when the mother share dropped. It will lower the exercise price of the warrant. Not sure if it is done with a concerted effort but I will certainly buy the mother if it falls to $1.60 again. |
| (Post 16 of 4623) 07/16/1999.23:02:00 |
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Just announced today : Issue of up to 192; 981; 891 warrants ("Warrants") to subscribe for up to 192; 981; 891 new ordinary shares of $1.00 each to be immediately converted into new stock units of $1.00 each in the capital of United Overseas Land Limited (the "Company") at $1.25 per new share to be offered (the "Warrant Offer") to stockholders of the Company ("Members") by United Overseas Bank Limited ; on a renounceable preferential basis in the proportion of three (3) Warrants for every ten (10) existing stock units of $1.00 each in the capital of the Company ("Stock Units") held by Members as at 5.00 p.m. on 13 July 1999 (the "Books Closure Date") at an offer price of $0.31 per Warrant; in conjunction with a transferable loan facility with embedded bond call option and a bond issue in the aggregate principal amount of $300 million Last date and time for splitting : 26 July 1999, 4.45 pm Acceptance and Payment* : 3 August 1999, 4.45 pm Renunciation and Payment : 3 August 1999, 4.45 pm Excess Warrants Application and Payment : 3 August 1999, 4.45 p.m. |
| (Post 17 of 4623) 07/17/1999.13:37:00 |
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To oldman, Please enlighten what the announcement means. What are you going to do with the shares & warr. thanks.. |
| (Post 18 of 4623) 07/17/1999.16:57:00 |
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Nothing really new in the announcement. I have just pasted it in here to remind me of the schedules. Over the past week, I have been observing the price of the mother share and a pattern is emerging that is similiar to what I describe for Boustead (do read my posting here). Let me paint you a possible scenario. 'Institutions' went in heavy on UOL. Started selling as soon as it went x rights. They continue to sell until price reaches the warrant exercise price of $1.25 or even lower. Many may then not subscribe for the warrants. 'Institutions' have already applied heavily for excess rights. Once the warrants start trading, they jack up the price of the mother shares. I know that there are other explainations for the significant % fall in the mother shares. However, to me this is a blue chip counter and really should not be testing new lows every day. |
| (Post 19 of 4623) 07/17/1999.18:30:00 |
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thanks, that helps |
| (Post 20 of 4623) 08/22/2000.22:28:00 |
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Oldman, If institutions pushed the price down to say S$1.25 or lower so that investors will not subscribe to the warrants, would they then push the price back to the S$1.80 to S$1.90 level after the warrants have been issued? Will you subscribe to the warrants if the mother shares fell below S$1.25? Should one also apply for excess rights? Looking forward to your advice. |
| (Post 21 of 4623) 07/17/1999.20:34:00 |
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Definitely yes. I will take up the excess warrants. Notice that there is so heavy selling of the 'rights' that these are only priced in the 24 cts when the exercise price is $1.25 with 5 years expiry (I think) and the mother is at $1.46. In other words, there is just a premium of 2 cts. At this junction, I am not recommending buying the rights as if my assessment is right, they will push down the mother further. Compare this with the current UOL warrants at 44cts, expiry May 2001 and exercise price of $1.60. Hence, you can see why I feel that there is some concerted effort at moving the rights price down. How much will it rebound is anybody's guess but I will be surprised if it is not back to the $1.70 / $1.80 level. Take care and let's hope to get some excess warrants. |
| (Post 22 of 4623) 07/17/1999.20:44:00 |
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Correction, the warrant premium of this in the money warrant is 31cts (subscription price) + 2cts = 33cts. Compare with the current UOL warrant 01 at 44cts and is out of the money by 15cts and has a shorter expiry date. |
| (Post 23 of 4623) 07/17/1999.22:24:00 |
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Oldman, Thank you for the response. You would have also noticed that the current warrant was also rammed down from 91 cents to the present 43.5 cents, a total of 52$ with Friday drop at 21%. Luckily I cleared the warrants early. However, I did not cut loss on all my UOL mother shares and am holding on to some of them. In a worse case scenerio, I may transfer them to my CPF account (and hold them until it is back to S$1.80/S$1.90.) I am down by about 40 cents per share now and may be too late to exit (or is it never too late to exit?). Do you think it is advisable to hold on to them and hope that it will rebound later on when the new warrants are traded? What incentive would there be for the manipulators to ram the price up later on (of course, the new warrants will be worth more), but would it be costly to ram up the price? (I guess maybe not as they can be the buyer and seller together, i.e. buy and sell to each other in concert -- right pocket to left pocket). Did I answer myself correctly? Looking forward to your reply. |
| (Post 24 of 4623) 07/17/1999.23:03:00 |
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UOL - adding a bit of comment. [1] Notice from , the ex-right event not being adjusted into its share price. Wat I mean is, there leaves a gap between $1.97 [6/7 closing] and $1.85 [7/7 intra-day high]. [2] Looks like share price are only adjusted (for charting purposes) if there is ex-bonus issues. Therefore, I presumed the gap between $1.85/$1.97 do exist (hope I dun get anyone confused, or myself) [3] 1998 Year high of $1.28 is where the price started to brk free (during mid-Apr 99) and established a parallel uptrend channel of approx. 30 cents range. I've mentioned to Lee b4 of its potential upside if share prices closes above the upper channel line(which may observed another 30 cents upside tgt from brk-level). [4] But on the other hand (which too, I'm surprised that it did happen), a close below the lower channel line will instead do the reverse, with initial objective of (minus 30 cents) from brk-level. [5] 7/7 happens to be the cruel day of brking below the lower channel line (brk-level approx. at $1.82). It hav since recorded 10 trading days w/o positive closing, and a total loss of 51 cents in 2 wks time. (Furthermore, it has already close below 100 days MA) [6] On the positive side, 100 days MA of Market Value has been on the rising mood (which could mean mid to long-term investors hav not leave the counter). [7] Another positive point, which may not agreed by some of u'll out there, the created GAP mentioned above will offer a chance to 'cover-back' which at the mean time, I believe it will. Many cases hav shown, eg. VDH, Enersave etc. [8] From Year high of $2.04 , a 38.2% correction would see a level of $1.26 , pretty close to the Ex. price mentioned by Oldman ($1.25) and coincidently, a mere 2 cents difference from the level mentioned in Point [3]. Furthermore, current 200 days MA stands approx. $1.273 (which considered the mother support/resist level of MA, I think so) [9a] Those who hold - no point of averaging down the price (unless u're damn sure of yr investment choice, and perhaps it's already 30% lower than yr last purchase price), as if the GAP is going to 'cover-back', u'll still managed to earn. [9b] For those tempted to go in - 1st of all, u must believe that the GAP will sure to 'cover-back', and depends on yr attitude towards going into this counter. For conservative, do wait for a level below $1.30 (or consider a miss if it dun drop below). For agressive, u'll still able to make attractive profit at current entry level. Last, regards the time period that it will 'cover-back' the gap, it's anybody's guess (provided he/she believes this will happen). For eg. of Enersave :- 1. 2 gaps were created on the 1st 3 wks during IPO. 2. 1st gap took about a months time to do the 'cover-back'. 3. 2nd gap, only happen early-Jun 99, a time period of approx. 10 mths. Rdgs |
| (Post 25 of 4623) 07/18/1999.00:11:00 |
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TA: Again trying to learn the reasoning behind Tech Analysis. Example: If price closes at day high of S2 and next day jump to $2.30. Would the gap of S$2 to S$2.30 need to be closed. If so, what is the reasoning behind? Thank you for the short tutorial. |
| (Post 26 of 4623) 07/18/1999.07:11:00 |
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Lee, UOL is a good share. If you have holding power, I am sure it will go back to the right levels once the warrants start trading again. Remember that UOB has been buying into this share at around this level before. As regards to the rights, remember that one has time to make a decision and I will not rush into making one until the beginning of Aug. |
| (Post 27 of 4623) 07/18/1999.10:01:00 |
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Oldman, will definitely hold. Thanks and have a great Sunday. |
| (Post 28 of 4623) 08/03/1999.18:33:00 |
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Excellent set of results. Announced this pm : Turnover for the Company decreased by 21% to $22.3 million due mainly to lower dividends from subsidiaries. However, operating profit before tax increased by 56% from $13.7 million to $21.4 million due partly to profit from sale of quoted investments and lower interest on borrowings. For the Group, turnover decreased by 17% to $190.4 million and this is due mainly to lower revenue from its development properties for sale. However operating profit before tax for the first half year increased by 85% from $24.6 million in 1998 to $45.5 million in 1999. The improvement is due mainly to higher investment income, lower interest and the write back of provision for development losses made in the previous year for the Island Country Villas project which has been fully sold. Similarly, profit after tax also increased by 86% to $34.0 million. The overall economic outlook is now more positive with the government revising its growth forecast for 1999 to between zero percent and a positive growth of two percent. Demand for lower-end residential properties has been fairly strong and this trend is expected to continue in the second half year. Although rentals for office space have softened in recent months, rental rates are expected to stabilise by the end of the year as more space are being absorbed. The hotel industry in Singapore and Vietnam remains competitive with pressure on room rates. Although the Directors do not expect the Group's performance for the second half year to be as good as the first half, the Directors nonetheless expect the performance for the whole of this year to be better than that of last year. |
| (Post 29 of 4623) 08/04/1999.09:32:00 |
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Hi Oldman, So would you still go in, with the results out? Price seems to be quite unexciting this morning (~1.62). Or has the results being factored into the stock price already? |
| (Post 30 of 4623) 08/04/1999.12:30:00 |
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Got a few more lots today. Look at this as a mid term investment. I am sure that they have intentionally lowered their NAV and this will be adjusted once shares start moving up. Also note that Novena Square is almost completed and this will draw investor interest to the shares. |
| (Post 31 of 4623) 08/04/1999.14:11:00 |
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Thanks, Oldman! |
| (Post 32 of 4623) 08/05/1999.23:38:00 |
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UOL – Slide in 50days ma cause abit of worry. 1. However, on the other hand, 100days ma kept on the rise. 2. Near-term to short-term trading likely restricted below $1.70 on closing. Bottomline – similar to that of Pisa Pac comment, and only if both 10/20 days ma making u-turn above 50 days ma, the outlook willthen be more +ve.  |
| (Post 33 of 4623) 08/06/1999.06:21:00 |
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Thanks warr. Is it fair to say that buying between $1.50 and $1.60 is a fair bet ? |
| (Post 34 of 4623) 08/06/1999.08:07:00 |
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Hi Oldman, similar to Pisa Pac, as the trend has yet been confirmed, safe-keep the money for a while. Even if u only can get back at a price approx. $1.70 , it maybe safer than u try at current level. Hope u can understand wat I mean. (most important thing is that trend has yet been clear) Rdgs |
| (Post 35 of 4623) 08/06/1999.19:08:00 |
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All the best of luck to those of us who applied for excess warrants.... Issue of 177; 280; 350 warrants ("Warrants") to subscribe for 177; 280; 350 new ordinary shares of $1.00 each ("New Shares") to be immediately converted into new stock units of $1.00 each in the capital of United Overseas Land Limited (the "Company") at $1.25 per New Share to be offered to stockholders of the Company ("Stockholders") by United Overseas Bank Limited ("UOB"); on a renounceable preferential basis in the proportion of three (3) Warrants for every ten (10) existing stock units of $1.00 each in the capital of the Company held by Stockholders as at 5.00 p.m. on 13 July 1999 at an offer price of $0.31 per Warrant (the "Warrant Offer"); in conjunction with a transferable loan facility with embedded bond call option and a bond issue in the aggregate principal amount of $300 million The Directors of the Company are pleased to announce that as at the close of the Warrant Offer on 3 August 1999, acceptances and excess applications for a total of 189,522,424 Warrants, representing approximately 106.9 per cent. of the total number of 177,280,350 Warrants under the Warrant Offer, have been received. The details of the acceptances and excess applications are as follows:(a) acceptances were received for a total of 167,635,060 Warrants representing approximately 94.6 per cent. of the total number of the Warrants offered under the Warrant Offer; and(b) excess applications were received for a total of 21,887,364 Warrants representing 12.3 per cent. of the total number of Warrants offered under the Warrant Offer. The Warrant Offer has therefore been oversubscribed by approximately 6.9 per cent.The balance of 9,645,290 Warrants which have not been accepted pursuant to the Warrant Offer will be allocated to satisfy excess applications for the Warrants or otherwise disposed of or dealt with in such manner as the Company, UOB and UOB Asia Limited may in their absolute discretion think expedient in the interest of the Company. Where any application for excess Warrants is unsuccessful or where the number of excess Warrants allocated is less than that applied for, the amount paid on application or the surplus moneys, as the case may be, is expected to be returned to the respective applicants without interest or any share of revenue or other benefit arising therefrom within fourteen (14) days after the close of the Warrant Offer on 3 August 1999 by ordinary post at their own risk (if they had applied to the Company or through The Central Depository (Pte) Limited) or by crediting their respective accounts with the relevant Banks at their own risk (if they had applied through the Authorised Trading Centres or Automated Teller Machines). |
| (Post 36 of 4623) 08/14/1999.12:50:00 |
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UOL - ROC of closing remains on -ve territory. Add another point, that, both 9/18days still speeding downwards, with closing price below both mas. (all -ve factors) Bottomline : No difference to that of WingTai.  |
| (Post 37 of 4623) 08/14/1999.14:30:00 |
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Hi Warr I am impressed with your TA charts and must say that they give us a good picture of the counters and help us in trading shares. I am trying to learn TA charting but somehow I don't seem to understand them completely. Your chart with explanations provided is a good practice for people like me. Can you pls explain what is -VE, WMA. Pls continue to present more charts and thanks. |
| (Post 38 of 4623) 08/14/1999.15:05:00 |
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Hi cclee : -VE meaning negative +VE meaning positive WMA meaning Weighted Moving Averages SMA meaning Simple MA .....etc Rdgs |
| (Post 39 of 4623) 08/14/1999.15:36:00 |
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Hi Warr Thanks for your reply |
| (Post 40 of 4623) 08/16/1999.20:38:00 |
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In SES today: Investors are hereby advised of the following:- 1. The abovementioned 177,280,350 W04 will be granted listing and quotation with effect from 9.00 a.m., Wednesday, 18 August 1999. 2. The short, abbreviated names and ISIN Code of the Warrants are as follows:-Short Name Abbreviated NameUOL W040612 UOL W04The ISIN Code is SG4146873056. 3. The Warrants 04 will be quoted in board lot of 1,000 Warrants. A holder of 1,000 Warrants 04 will be entitled to subscribe for 1,000 UOL shares at the exercise price on or after 18 August 1999 but not later than 12 June 2004.4. The exercise price for the Warrants 04 has been fixed at $1.25 per share for the time being. |
| (Post 41 of 4623) 08/16/1999.20:44:00 |
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UOB bought another 91,000 shares at $1.45 yesterday bringing their total shareholding to 43.338% with 256 million shares. |
| (Post 42 of 4623) 08/18/1999.15:37:00 |
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UOL W010528 expires in May2001(21 mths left) and excercise price is $1.60 UOL W040612 expires only in Jun-2004 (another 58mths life) and has lower excercise price(only $1.25) While W01 enjoys slightly better gearings, W04 offers a much longer lifespan of nearly 5-yrs. So Theoretically, Uol-W04 should trade around 35c higher than the Uol-W01 as Uol-W04 enjoys both better Intrinsic value(by 35c) and TIME-Value. - OLD wrt is likely to see gradual "price erosion" as discerning "new investors" are more likely to buy the NEW Wrt instead. |
| (Post 43 of 4623) 08/18/1999.20:41:00 |
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Fully agree with your assessment fundollar. I have quite a bit of the new UOL warrants and I will be holding on for a while. It is quite normal for new 'issues' to be undervalued in the first few days as quite a number go for the rights in the hope of liquidating earlier. I guess at the end of the day, one has to decide if the old warrant is just over priced and the new one is correct or the that the new one is underpriced. The answer probably lies with the market potential and sentiments. Although the market surged today, the vol for most of the shares are still relatively low....hence, it can still go either way. As for me, I think that the surge will continue for a few more days and if the vol still remains low, I will be selling. |
| (Post 44 of 4623) 08/18/1999.21:39:00 |
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Reported in BT today : LOOKING at the latest results of United Overseas Land, it is hard to tell that a substantial part of the company's fortune rides on a property project called Novena Square. UOL, the listed property arm of United Overseas Bank, released its interim results on Aug 3. Most shareholders probably would not complain about its performance, what with earnings having more than doubled to $34.7 million, despite a 17 per cent fall in revenue to $190 million. But the more astute shareholders might wonder why UOL made no mention on the progress of Novena Square, given its importance to the company. Under construction on top of the Novena MRT station, Novena Square is UOL's single biggest investment. It is 60 per cent owned by UOL, 20 per cent by UOB and 20 per cent by listed Singapore Land, another member of the UOB group. High bid: In March 1997, UOL, UOB and Singland put in a winning bid of $508 million for the Novena site in a state land sale. Their offer was 35 per cent higher than the next bidder, a consortium led by the Hong Leong group. Novena Square will have two office towers, one with 25 storeys and the other about half as high, and a three-storey retail podium. Total cost, including interest, is estimated to come to about $780 million, or an average of $1,250 for each of the 630,000 square foot of lettable space there. The Novena Square site, like most land bought in government land sale, carries a 99-year lease. Though it would only be ready in a year, it is already clear Novena Square's market value has fallen way below its cost. UOL seems to have recognised this fact. By the end of last year, it had written down $70 million for "an office investment building under construction", which presumably is its 60 per cent stake in Novena Square. This would mean the writedown for the entire Novena Square was $116.7 million. But this may be too little. Measured purely by yield, Novena Square is worth perhaps $450 per sq ft. But as most property valuations in Singapore also input some potential of capital appreciation, UOL would probably get an outside valuation of $750 psf for the project. At $750 psf the developers would be suffering a paper loss of $500 psf, or around $315 million in total. UOL's share would come to just under $190 million. As the company has already provided $70 million for diminution in value of Novena Square, this means it might have to provide as much as another $120 million. Such a provision will have to come out from UOL's asset revaluation reserves, which had already fallen from $909 million at the beginning of 1998 to $544 million in the December the same year. This will reduce its net tangible asset backing per share, but will not affect its profits. But its profits are likely to be affected when Novena Square becomes a going concern. Given the poor state of the retail and office rental markets, it remains to be seen whether the project can generate enough revenue to meet its overheads, let alone its development cost. Any shortfall will be reflected in UOL's profit and loss account. Bad tidings: Since Novena Square is likely to hit both UOL's profits and balance sheet, it is important for shareholders to keep up with its progress. Of course, no company likes to send out statements of bad tidings. Perhaps that explained why UOL has been so reticent on the project. But from the perspective of good corporate governance, UOL should make an effort to keep its shareholders updated, at least via the twice yearly results statements. |
| (Post 45 of 4623) 08/18/1999.22:13:00 |
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Oldman, What is your view on this BT's article? |
| (Post 46 of 4623) 08/19/1999.06:38:00 |
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Based on Wed(18Aug99) closing prices:- UOL at $1.52, W01 at $0.48 and w04 at $0.65 w01 is trading at 37% premium with 3.7x gearing while for w04, it is 25% premium and 2.34x gearing. The price spread between w01 and w04 is thus only 17c, we can expect this spread to further widen to at least 30c. - so if UOL price remain steady, then we should see further erosion in price of W01, while W04 price appreciates by a greater extent toward 70c-75c giving premiums of some 32%-36%. |
| (Post 47 of 4623) 08/19/1999.07:28:00 |
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Lee, I feel that it is already in the price. UOL's market cap is $885 mil at $1.50 a share. Its NTA is $2.65 a share or $1.5 bil. Hence a further $120 mil provision will mean a reduction in the NTA of 20cts...nothing really that significant. The fact that UOB continues to buy into the share makes me more confortable. However, I will continue to monitor the progress of this share... |
| (Post 48 of 4623) 09/25/1999.18:10:00 |
| Author : |
 1. RSI(14days) rather oversold. 2. Stochastic, again, reached the oveersold region and just started to make a crossing. 3. Re-cap of volume traded over past 4 wks (creeping up ?). - 706lots for wk ended 3/9 - 2690lots for wk ended 10/9 - 1479lots for wk ended 17/9 - 2474lots for wk ended 24/9 4. From a height of $2.04 [5/7] to current low of $1.39 [22/9] - almost 32% loss. Immediate Support - $1.38 / Probable Resist - $1.50 (regards 1st entry for bottom searcher) |
| (Post 49 of 4623) 11/06/1999.03:50:00 |
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Hi, The moment when I read the papers on the recent purchase of Caltex House and Hitachi Tower by Pidemco Holdings, I know that UOL would have room going for a good run in the future time. UOL W04 would have the potential to go up above 70 cents this time when the rest of the property counters are waiting to move up in these few sessions. See for it yourself and U would be most delighted to see this counter to appreciate itself so fast that U cannot even catch it on weakness. It would be the right moment to pick up some now. |
| (Post 50 of 4623) 11/13/1999.13:46:00 |
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I would like to seek advice on uol w01, unfortunately i bought some at the height of the last bull run and am stuck at 91.5 cents. With the release of w04, i don't think it'll ever hit that price again. As such, should i just wait for the exercise date or should i cash out at a right time? Thanks to potential advisors, from a fresh warrant buyer!! |
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