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(Post 1 of 503) 05/04/1999.20:12:00 |
| Author : |
Azrael, I hope that you don't mind me posting your comments as I find the info very useful. Though this is not a Singapore listed company, its primary business is in Singapore and many people ask about the company. Cheapest play on Singapore's car boom. HK$1.21 (research done on early April, 99) - Tan Chong International, in the business of selling Nissan and Subaru cars, is set to gain from a big expansion in Singapore's highly regulated car market. 39% more COEs in FY99 and 15% in FY2000 are expected to be released. - The larger scope to grow should be especially beneficial to mass market makes like Nissan, as car buyers are budget conscious during the current economic downturn. Nissan, already the second best selling car in Singapore, should be able to sell 50% more cars in FY99 and another 13% in FY2000, driving car distribution profits up 45%in FY99 and 8% in FY2000. Fresh from 12% rise in earnings in FY98, we believe TCiL will deliver an impressive 72% jump in earnings in FY99. This will be due to stronger motor profit and no more property and investment provisions. Trading at just 9x FY99-2000 earnings, vs 12-16x for Inchcape Motors and 25x for C&C, TCiL is the strongest buy among the listed car distributors. EARNINGS FORECAST 97 98 99F 00F Earnings 134.9 151.2 259.9 277.4 EPS (HKc) 6.7 7.5 12.9 13.8 Consensus EPS (HKc) - - 9..0 9.0 PER (x) 18.1 16.1 9.4 8.8 WAC (m) 2016 2016 2016 2016 Op margin % 11.9 11.1 11.2 10.9 DPS (HK$) - 3.0 5.0 5.5 Yield % - 2.4 4.1 4.5 NTA (HK$) 1.52 1.42 - - Earnings likely to jump 72% in FY 99, rise 7% in FY 2000. - Recommendation - TCiL is most attractively priced among the Singapore motor stocks. Valuation at HK$1.21 is 9x at FY99-2000 earnins. This compares 12-16x for Inchcape Motors at 2.22 and 25x for C&C at S$8.60 (now 10.3 after a 50cents drop!) . The valuation discount could be due to its Hong Kong listing status, but given that its business remains substantially in Singapore, we believe the discount in unjustified. - TCiL's bright future would easily warrant a "Buy" recommendation. Personal experience, fairly slow and steady rise. Volume not that fantastic :) Probably more of mid term play. Other car stocks - C&C is more prone to large absolute (not percentage) movements. |
| (Post 2 of 503) 07/02/1999.11:22:00 |
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Oldman: Is TCIL worth keeping at the current price of HK$2.25? If I decide to keep until it reaches HK$2.70, is that achievable? Need your advice. |
| (Post 3 of 503) 07/02/1999.12:26:00 |
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DBS has a good summary of this stock. Though it appears to be reasonably valued at this price, I think that it will continue to receive investors attention : Tan Chong International - Singapore's cheapest motor play (posted June 16, 1999) Recommendation: Buy ( HK$1.36 as at June 15, 1999; STI: 2046.83) One of the early signs of an economic recovery is usually an increase in car sales. With the added impetus of an increase in COE quota, investors are likely to turn their attention to the handful of listed car distributors. Yeo Boon Hong, the associate director of CMG First State Investments in Singapore, represents a growing list of fund managers who are increasingly bullish on Tan Chong International (TCIL). This is not surprising given that analysts like JM Sassoon have slated the stock as the "cheapest play on Singapore's car boom". In April, we highlighted TCIL in a review of Singapore's motor sector (Opinion dated April 15, 1999) for its strong fundamentals and cheap valuations when compared to its peers. Two months and a hefty 50 percent appreciation later, we still believe TCIL is relatively undervalued. Car distribution sector the main beneficiary of COE increase TCIL derives its earnings from 4 business units: Distribution of Nissan and Subaru cars in Singapore and Subaru in Hong Kong and Thailand Distribution of light commercial, heavy commercial vehicles and forklift trucks. Investment properties "Others" and associates. "Others" includes a mobile phone distribution business in Singapore and the car financing, insurance agency and claims processing business under Tan Chong Credit. The group also has businesses held under associate companies, such as a tyre distribution business and a car rental and leasing business. The gradual economic recovery, akin to a U-shape rather than a V-shape, seems a blessing to TCIL. Had the recovery been too swift, Cycle & Carriage could emerge as the winner as more people would turn to luxury marques instead of middle-sized cars. The present uptrend in car sales shows that motor traders distributing middle-market brands have continued to outperform distributors of luxury cars. In the first 5 months of 1999, TCIL sold 32 percent more Nissans while sales of Mercedes Benz, which are distributed by Cycle & Carriage, fell by 24 percent.. We believe that TCIL has the edge to increase their market share over the 40 percent increase in passenger car COEs for this year. It is the only distributor with new models this year (Sunny VIP) and has the most competitive prices. Already, over 500 units of the new Nissan Sunny VIP introduced over the weekend have been pre-sold. These orders, which are worth about $50 million, were received over the past two months. Price wise, Nissan cars are also cheaper than Toyota and Hondas of similar capacities. Nissan was the second-best seller last year, after Honda which ousted Toyota in 1998. This is a vast improvement for Nissan from its sixth position in 1997. If Nissan can maintain its current growth rate, it should close the gap on Honda soon. COE Premiums S$'000 May 99 Jun 99 Jul 99 Cat A (1,600cc) 39.0 46.1 53.5 Cat E (Open) 35.9 43.7 53.0 Source: J.M. Sassoon Initially, there were concerns that sales concluded at prices prior to the current run-up in COE premium may suffer from a margin squeeze. The current buoyant market however has rendered the demand for cars more inelastic and motor traders thus have the flexibility to maintain or even increase margins by pricing in the higher COE premiums into their selling prices. Tan Chong's overseas car distributorship was also given a boost recently with its appointment as the sole distributor of Subaru vehicles in Thailand. While we do not have details of the deal and hence cannot estimate the earnings contributions from this new division, the timing could not be better as vehicle sales are set to soar as the Thai economy is turning the corner. With a potential market 10 times that of Singapore's, TCIL's thrust into Thailand holds great promise. Forecast Sales of Top 3 Distributors Year-End Dec. Jan - May '98 Jan - May '99 % change 1998 1999 Forecast % change Cycle & Carriage Mercedes 1,040 790 -24.0 2,060 1,847 -10.3 Mitsubishi 992 1,561 +57.4 3,239 4,716 +45.6 Inchcape Motors Toyota 997 2,423 +143.0 3,401 5,070 +49.1 Tan Chong International Nissan 1,416 1,868 +31.9 3,920 5,895 +50.4 COEs 11,282 13,466 +19.4 28,200 39,300 +39.4 Source: J.M. Sassoon Commercial vehicle distribution to slow down TCIL derived 66 percent of its earnings from its cars distribution business in its last financial year. Commercial vehicle distribution, which contributed 38.7 percent, managed to achieve 69 percent higher profit of HK$102.5 million. This was due mostly to sales growth of Nissan light commercial vehicles. The higher volume and margins from this category enabled TCIL to offset the lower volumes on heavy commercial vehicles and forklifts. Looking forward, commercial vehicle profits are likely to be slightly lower, as the Singapore market reaches saturation point. Again, we expect Nissan light commercial vehicle sales to provide the main thrust for this unit's profits. Redevelopment potential of investment properties TCIL's significant property interests in Singapore include industrial properties, car showrooms, offices and serviced apartments. The main attraction of the company's property portfolio is the redevelopment potential of the car showrooms and its industrial properties at Bukit Timah, Woodlands, Upper Bukit Timah and Upper Aljunied, totaling 900,000 sq. ft. This landbank is similar in size to those of Keppel Land and Win Tai, but at a fraction of their land costs. With the exception of the Upper Bukit Timah site, all the other sites are freehold and could potentially be rezoned for condominium use. Using conservative plot ratios of 1.4 - 2 times for these sites, the gross floor area on redevelopment could be as much as 1.5 m sq. ft. Based on current valuations for the investment properties and the development potential of its landbank, some brokers say that TCIL's Singapore property portfolio is conservatively estimated at HK$2.5 billion or about HK$1.20 per share. If property prices rise by a further 15 percent this year, TCIL's landbank could be worth close to HK$1.48 per share. A full recovery of the property market back to its 1996 peak would contribute an estimated HK$1.80 per share. Tan Chong International's Properties in Singapore Investment Properties Market value (S$psf) Market value (S$m) Tan Chong Tower 600 49 Wilby Residence 800 184 25 leng Kee Road 250 14 23 Jalan Buroh 80 6 15 Tuas St 100 4 Sub Total (A) 256 Landbank Gross Floor Area (sq ft) Market value (S$m) Tan Chong Industrial Park 426,262 65 Tan Chong Motor Centre 317,770 116 14 Upper Aljunied Road 311,947 65 Woodlands 466,378 55 Sub total (B) 1,522,356 301 Value of properties in Singapore 557, or approximately HK$2.5 billion or HK$1.24 per share Source: ABN Amro; assuming HKD/SGD = 4.53 "Other" businesses and associates fully written down The other divisions results were below par. Though a return to profitability is unlikely, the worst should be over as smaller losses are expected from its finance associate, TIFA. TCIL has a 48 percent stake in PT Tifa Mutual Finance Corporation (TIFA), a leasing and finance associate in Indonesia which suffered a loss in FY98 due to bad debt provisions and high funding costs. As the company wrote off the cost of its investment at FY98, it should not be significantly affected should further losses occur. The group also has two joint-ventures (JV) in China, a 50/50 JV in Xiamen to manufacture motor vehicle seats and a 65 percent JV stake in a sino-foreign JV to manufacture auto parts in Jiangyin. Other equity investments in China include a 10 percent stake in a truck manufacturing project in Hangzhou, in partnership with Nissan Diesel, Sumitomo and Dong Feng Motor, which is also one of the two largest auto manufacturers in the PRC, and a 12 percent stake in a venture to manufacture small passenger vehicles in Guizhou. These investments serve to provide a strategic foothold in China, a potentially huge market for motor and auto parts. Contributions from these ventures will only be significant after FY2000. Buy Tan Chong and get its motor earnings for free So if TCIL's property portfolio alone is worth between HK$1.20 to HK$1.48 per share, investors will be getting its motor earnings almost for free at the share's current price of HK$1.36. After stripping out the value of its properties, TCIL's motor business trades slightly above 1 times historical FY98 PE. Based on forecast FY99 earnings, its PER gets even more attractive. This is an unjustifiable given that Cycle & Carriage and Inchcape are trading at 29 times and 18 times one-year forward earnings respectively. Based on a conservative 12 times motor valuation, we should add another HK$1.32 per share, resulting in a fair value of HK$2.70. Trading at a discount of almost 50 percent to the sector average over FY99, TCIL is undoubtedly the cheapest motor stock in Singapore. Even if we price TCIL with Inchcape, the cheapest motor stock trading at 18 times earnings, we will still arrive at a fair value of $2.35. Comparative Valuation of Listed Motor Companies Share Price 15 June, 1999 EPS $ 1999F PER (X) 1999F Tan Chong International HK$1.38 HK$0.129 10.7 Cycle & Carriage S$9.55 S$0.322 29.7 Inchcape Motors S$2.70 S$0.148 18.2 Sime Singapore S$0.765 S$0.031 24.7 Singapore motor sector 20.8 TCIL's discount to sector (%) 49 Source: Bloomberg; prices based on June 15, 1999 closing. What is the reason for the stock's colossal discount? One theory is the lack of coverage by investment analysts. The stock is an offshoot of Tan Chong Bhd and its main listing is on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with only a secondary listing in Singapore. Despite this, we believe that TCIL's earnings should be valued against its Singapore counterparts rather than Hong Kong as the bulk of its earnings is derived from Singapore. Besides, a basic tenet of the efficient market theory validated through research, is that under-researched stocks with low PEs and price-to-book ratios consistently achieve above market returns |
| (Post 4 of 503) 07/05/1999.12:23:00 |
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Tan Chong to turn used-car lot into houses Terraces or cluster houses planned for Aljunied site By Christopher Tan [SINGAPORE] L and-rich motor group Tan Chong International is getting set to embark on its next property development project, involving a 223,000 sq ft freehold plot in Upper Aljunied Road currently occupied by about 36 used-car dealers. BT understands the group is planning to build 100 two-storey terraces as the area has a height restriction. But a senior manager in charge of the project said another possibility was to build cluster houses (landed property with condo-style facilities). On a plot ratio of 2.1, each terrace house could have built-up area in excess of 3,000 sq ft, translating to a price range of $1.5 million to $1.9 million each. New look: this 223,000 sq ft freehold plot could yield 100 terraces priced at $1.5m to $1.9m each -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Construction could start as early as the beginning of 2000, as the used-car traders occupying the land have already been given notice to move out by the end of this year. If that is to be, completion would be some time in the second half of 2002. Hongkong-listed Tan Chong International bought the land in the early 1970s "for just a few million", according to one senior executive. The plot was revalued a few years ago at over $20 million. The company is primarily in the motor vehicle business and distributes a number of brands, but primarily Nissan. It has a massive land bank, including some one million square feet of freehold sites across the island. Sources said Tan Chong could redevelop the Aljunied site with another party, as it was still relatively new in property development (its maiden project here was The Wilby at Bukit Timah). The Aljunied project is expected to be received favourably. The site is a little over five minutes from the Central Expressway; and will be within walking distance from a future MRT station. It is also near schools, including Maris Stella and CHIJ Toa Payoh. The development will also be one of the few new freehold landed properties on the market in recent years. |
| (Post 5 of 503) 07/06/1999.11:57:00 |
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This is TCIL second foray into property. 1. Wilby Residence with a gross floor area of 289400 ft. Yield 5 million annually on rental ( service apt and basedon 60% occupancy ) 2. Est gross profit of aljunied site @ 80million based on land cost of 20m and construction cost @ 50m and units going @1.5m 3. Lim & Tan recommended : Accumulate. |
| (Post 6 of 503) 07/06/1999.11:59:00 |
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This is TCIL second foray into property. 1. Wilby Residence with a gross floor area of 289400 ft. Yield 5 million annually on rental ( service apt and basedon 60% occupancy ) 2. Est gross profit of aljunied site @ 80million based on land cost of 20m and construction cost @ 50m and units going @1.5m 3. Lim & Tan recommended : Accumulate. |
| (Post 7 of 503) 08/10/1999.09:51:00 |
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Looks like TCIL has even gotten the attention of Bloomberg. There has been so many pitches on this stock lately, all saying basically the same thing. I wonder why... Singapore, Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) - Singapore's Tan Chong International Ltd. is drawing investors as its car sales grab the biggest slice of the island's market and rising property prices increase the allure of its land holdings. Last month, sales of Tan Chong's main car brand, Nissan Motor Corp. vehicles, clinched top slot among distributors on the island, with sales in the first seven months of 1999 rising 34 percent compared with a year ago. "Tan Chong has been our market pick and the stock has done very well," Teo Hiang Boon, an analyst at G.K. Goh Research Pte. "They're in the right category - basic cars, or those with an engine capacity of less than 1.6 liters, where demand is still firm," he said. Demand for Tan Chong shares has been better than firm, with the stock more than tripling this year. It recently traded at HK$2.35. More gains may be ahead, as the company's properties, which analysts estimate could generate more than one million square feet of building space, start to gain investors' notice. That could lead to more re-ratings of earnings forecasts for this year. In the latest IBES International Inc. poll of nine analysts, three analysts raised forecasts, giving an average of 10.4 H.K. cents per share this year, 3.8 percent higher than last month's poll. Nothing Concrete Analysts are tipping the property gains won't have a big impact on Tan Chong's earnings until next year, as low interest rates cut the cost of real estate developments. The same IBES poll saw analysts raise forecasts for year 2000 profits by 9.5 percent compared with the previous month's report, to 12.8 H.K cents per share. And that's before the company decides on strategy. "The property division is looking into how to best use the land we have but we have nothing concrete yet," said Neo Ah Chap, Tan Chong's executive director. The best returns may come from sales of private homes as the island's recession ends. Home prices rose 4.4 percent in the first quarter and 11.4 percent in the second quarter of 1999, the first quarter-to-quarter gains after nine quarters of declines. Whatever the property plans, the profit margins should be attractive since Tan Chong avoided buying land in the last boom when prices tripled. That real estate potential, supported by record auto sales in June and July, may prompt more profit revisions. G.K. Goh's Teo said the stock is trading at a discount to his estimated re-valued net asset value (RNAV) of HK$3.40 a share. Analysts use RNAV to value property stocks. What's more, Tan Chong is trading at 23 times IBES' forecast 1999 earnings, compared with an average 36 times for companies on the benchmark Straits Times Index. Teo reckons the company could rise to HK$3.10 a share, 31 times his forecast of 10.1 H.K. cents a share this year and 27 times forecast 2000 earnings of 11.3 H.K. cents a share. Permit Prices While the market waits for property developments, investor focus will remain on Tan Chong's profits from its auto sales, which now contribute almost all the company's revenue. The effect on distributors' costs and margins from the island's new bidding system for vehicle permits will be revealed when the company reports first-half results on or after Aug. 18. The new bidding system, started in May, is aimed at keeping a tighter control on the number of new cars allowed on the roads. In the last four monthly auctions, demand for cars outstripped permits three to one, pushing permit prices 28 percent higher even though the government raised supply for the year to April by 42 percent. "The rising prices have some effect on our margins but we have been buffered by the larger market share," Neo said. "If the prices go down, the margins will be better. We believe the prices have peaked and should be coming down now." The average permit for 'basic cars' reached S$41,431 ($24,730) in the last four auctions from S$32,449 in the last auction under the old system. Likewise, an average permit for bigger cars - those having more than 1.6 liters in capacity - reached S$46,997 in the last four auctions, from S$36,836. Bids for September's permits are due early next week. More Cars On recent sales, Tan Chong is on the right track. Its monthly vehicle sales - which include Subaru Motor Co. cars - reached a record for a second month in July, pushing its overall market share to 30.74 percent in July from June's 26.5 percent and May's 18.6 percent. The company battles Inchcape Motor Ltd., the distributor of Toyota Motor Corp.'s cars, for the dominant share of the vehicle market. Sales in the first seven months of Nissan vehicles rose 34 percent on year to 5,816 units, topping Toyota sales of 5,643 Inchcape's Toyotas, Tan Chong said. Until June, Toyota held the largest market share. Granted, Inchcape faces unexpected competition. Its Toyota sales have come under pressure from unauthorized car imports, forcing it to cut prices more aggressively, local reports said. Inchcape "has to try and win back market share not just from distributors but from parallel importers," making it harder to win back pole position in sales, G.K. Goh's Teo said. |
| (Post 8 of 503) 08/18/1999.21:57:00 |
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Reported in HK Stock Exchange : TAN CHONG INT'L<0693> - Results Announcement Tan Chong International Limited announced on 18/8/1999: (stock code: 693) Year end date: 31/12/1999 Currency: HKD
Remark: Basis of presentation of comparative financial information The Company was incorporated on 19 March 1997 in Bermuda as an exempt company with limited liability under the Companies Act 1981 of Bermuda. Pursuant to a corporate reorganization to rationalize the structure of the Group in preparation for the listing of the shares of the Company on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (the "Stock Exchange") on 7 July 1998 by way of introduction, the Company became the holding company of the Group on 18 May 1998. For comparative purposes, the Group's results for the six months ended 30 June 1998 have been prepared on the basis that the current group structure had been in existence throughout the period presented. |
| (Post 9 of 503) 08/19/1999.20:02:00 |
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TCIL still rated as Outperform at RHBCR Singapore, Aug 19 -- RHB-Cathay Research is valuing Tan Chong International at HK$2.54 per share and have kept its Outperform rating on the stock. The valuation is based on TCIL's investment properties (before taking into account redevelopment potential of its land holding), net cash holding and after according a conservative 16 times FY99 PER to its motor business, says RHBCR. With the release of TCIL's interim results, the research firm also maintained its earnings forecast at HK$191mln for FY99 and HK$229.2mln for FY2000, which translates into forward PERs of 24 and 20 times for the two years. |
| (Post 10 of 503) 09/17/1999.10:50:00 |
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Tan Chong International from Fraser Direct The stock has given up about 80% of its $1.40 gain from the mid-June breakout level of $1.40 to a mid-July record peak of $2.80 and is so technically oversold around $1.70 that a rebound should take place soon. The earlier peak of $1.64 in May should act as support reinforced by a further base layer around $1.55 to $1.64. The daily MACD is at record low and deep in negative territory together with the RSI which is near record lows during the counter's debut days in July/August 1998. The sharp slide is also technically due to the dead cross between the 50 days and 100 days simple moving averages that took place recently. This has resulted in the uptrend line being broken due to the severe selldown but this should be only temporarily as TCIL is likely to recover back to above the trendline around $1.80. A further rebound to the $2.10 area is also likely, which is the half way mark between the breakout low of $1.40 and peak of $2.80. |
| (Post 11 of 503) 09/29/1999.16:30:00 |
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From DBSIOL Update: Tan Chong International (posted September 28, 1999) While general market sentiment for lower priced stocks has been quite weak over the past few weeks, Tan Chong International (TCIL) was especially hard hit, falling about 45 percent off its July high of HK2.70. This was mainly due to the scare created by Cycle & Carriage's potential loss of Mercedes franchise and the strengthening yen. While the C&C story highlighted the vulnerability of Singapore motor distributors, it would be speculative to say that TCIL will suffer the same fate. Some motor industry observers also feel that the Japanese car makers are unlikely to follow the DaimlerChrysler route and take back their distributorships, which is good news for TCIL. Moreover, we hear that TCIL's management is comfortable that Nissan will carry on with the current arrangement. More apparent though is the impact of recent yen strength on TCIL's profits. The earnings forecasts in our TCIL Hot Idea on July 29 came from Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia and since than the broker has actually upgraded its numbers slightly -- FY1999F and FY2000F to 10.3 and 15.5 HK cents respectively. CLSA also stated in a recent note that although the yen does have an impact on TCIL's car costs, historical margin trends reveal no conclusive evidence that margins are significantly hurt by this. The broker has therefore left its forecasts unchanged. To compensate for the rising yen, TCIL has already raised prices by about $2,000 for its Nissan Sunny models but with Japanese cars comprising some 80 percent of Singapore's car market, TCIL's competition will be subject to same cost pressures and have to make similar price adjustments. The price rise is also not significant enough to cause a switch to the higher priced European marques. Another important component is the COE price which rose in the first half and adversely affected motor firms profits. COE prices, however, have stabilised over the past two months and will help to ease margin pressures and give them extra leeway in pricing of their cars. It seems that a 10 percent rise in the yen raises each car's costs by about 4 percent. So even if we pare down CL's earnings by around 10 percent, TCI is trading at 18 and 11.5 times FY1999 and FY2000 earnings. After stripping out TCI's landbank valuation of HK$1.35, the stock is trading at a very attractive PER of only about 4 times its motor earnings. Given the still strong outlook for TCIL and its attractive valuations, we will therefore be maintaining it as a Buy in the IOL Portfolio. From a short term perspective, the stock is currently hovering around technical support at HK$1.50, recovering from its HK$1.45 close on Monday (September 27). This could provide the springboard for a rebound, given the present oversold situation. If a rebound occurs, selling pressure from stale bulls can be expected as the stock approaches the HK$2 resistance and a break above this level will be required for further upside. |
| (Post 12 of 503) 10/09/1999.18:47:00 |
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Hi, all! Lower COE prices announced may dampen the price...look for dips and accumulate. Cheers! |
| (Post 13 of 503) 10/09/1999.19:59:00 |
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Hi, I thought that a lower COE price is actually favourable to Tan Chong as it means that Tan Chong will enjoy a better profit margin? Nevertheless, I believe that the recent drop in Tan Chong's price in reaction to the C&C incident and rising yen is overdone. Some analysts are saying that an increase in 10% of yen's value vs Sing dollar will hurt Tan Chong's profit margin by 5%. What we need to figure out is whether such a drop in profit margin derserves such a drop in price. Anyway, I have heard that Tan Chong has actually raise it's Nissan car price by S$2000 to counter the rising yen, anyone to verify? Nevertheless, the yen is weakening now and there's a monetary meeting by Japanese government next Tuesday, rumoured that there will more injection of yen into market. And yes, u have guessed rightly, I'm holding Tan Chong shares. regards, manta |
| (Post 14 of 503) 11/09/1999.16:14:00 |
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TCIL looks promising in short-term from technical |
| (Post 15 of 503) 11/16/1999.10:07:00 |
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Fraser-AMMB Research BUY: Tan Chong International - (H.TCI) - HK$1.89 The auto distributor recently launched the Sunny and Cefiro models, which will boost sales. Overall, sales will hit 10,000 units for Tan Chong for the fiscal year. The stock is trading at about 20 times 1999 earnings, and 17 times 2000 forecast earnings. Fair value remains HK$2.51. |
| (Post 16 of 503) 11/16/1999.17:08:00 |
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Eka, I will move this later as this company sounds like Tan Chong but is actually another company.... |
| (Post 17 of 503) 11/16/1999.17:12:00 |
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*pai seh* ... okie thks .. I am stoned!!! going for a swim, desparately in need of one,hv a gd evening ... |
| (Post 18 of 503) 11/17/1999.20:04:00 |
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TCI was featured in the Hot Stock column today. This is the best pick in the motor sector. Nissan is the top selling car so far in 1999 and new models - Sunny and Cefiro - will help to sustain the strong momentum of sales. At HK$2.025, stripping out the property content of HK$1.20 per share, the motor PERs are 9x and 8x for FY99/00. Fair value is HK$2.80 based on 15x FY00 earnings. I have not vested any interest in this stock. May consider in future. Source: OCBC Sec |
| (Post 19 of 503) 11/27/1999.16:21:00 |
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Hi Oldman With the announcement from MAS Chairman, will there be possiblity TCIL be traded in Singapore dollar. If it is so, the potential of an upside is most apparent. Please advise. Cheers! |
| (Post 20 of 503) 12/08/1999.22:13:00 |
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There's no news as to whether this counter will be traded in Singapore $ though it has hinted before that it is very likely. Any comments on whether becoz of its dual listing, in HK as well, is it difficult to have it listed in singapore dollars? |
| (Post 21 of 503) 12/19/1999.23:12:00 |
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Tan Chong future should be more positive after C&C issue is cleared now. |
| (Post 22 of 503) 01/05/2000.22:09:00 |
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Oldman TCIL has reported excellent sales for Year ending 1999. Nassan car sales has again top the list. With today market correction and the price dip to HKD1.59, it should be a good buy. What will be the good level to enter. Have invested interest in the counter. Cheers! |
| (Post 23 of 503) 01/05/2000.22:50:00 |
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Oldman, what abt $1.55..do think that will do it..Happy Trading and WIN MORE..MORE.. |
| (Post 24 of 503) 01/07/2000.11:30:00 |
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Hi, Just ask, normally when will the COE price be announced in a month? |
| (Post 25 of 503) 01/07/2000.12:33:00 |
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Hi Bb1, for this month only, the LTA will start the tender ex. from 10 Jan to 15 Jan - Y2K issues again. Give them 2-3 working days to process, u should be able to know the COE price on 18th afternoon, if not than 19th afternon. Normally, the tender ex. will be on the first week of each month and the result will be available 2-3 working days later. If u are bidding for this month COE, wish u all the best. Happy driving, cheers :-))... |
| (Post 26 of 503) 01/07/2000.12:46:00 |
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Thanks batok Happy driving and happy trading |
| (Post 27 of 503) 01/07/2000.14:42:00 |
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bullish divergence? |
| (Post 28 of 503) 01/07/2000.15:55:00 |
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anyone care to comment on this one, seems crazy and funny trading pattern. |
| (Post 29 of 503) 01/09/2000.17:34:00 |
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The eratic price movement was due to different fund managers perspective. Apparetly 2 foreign funds sold down share to 1.51 only to meet by equally aggesive different funds that pushed it back to 1.56.Until the bull/bear tussle is over, may be better of looking at other shares. |
| (Post 30 of 503) 01/10/2000.11:41:00 |
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Thanks Tikam2. Just curious, how come you know that there are 2 FMS were selling instead of one? I was told the result for FEB COE is going out this afternoon. Should see some movement for this counter then. Hp trading |
| (Post 31 of 503) 01/11/2000.12:23:00 |
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alamak 1.51? |
| (Post 32 of 503) 01/11/2000.20:43:00 |
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May I know is it that each TCIL share cost HK$1.5++ or S$1.5++? Pse advice..Happy Trading and WIN MORE. |
| (Post 33 of 503) 01/11/2000.20:55:00 |
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hi novicealex, itz in HK$... so HK$1.51 ~ S$0.30 |
| (Post 34 of 503) 01/11/2000.22:58:00 |
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TCIL - Gloomy outlook  - From a wider view way back early Jun '99 , TCIL has marginally fallen off a Huge Symmetric Triangle. - Consecutive 5 Closing price have been restricted below 30days MA since the gap created between HK$1.66 ~ HK$1.70 - 100days MA has trended downwards since Noc '99 , adding further pressure for short-mid term upside. - Trading activities hots up since beginning of Yr 2000. Dumping of shares ??? Cautiously Avoid. Resist - HK$1.66 ~ HK$1.70 (immediate) / Along downtrend line. |
| (Post 35 of 503) 01/11/2000.23:28:00 |
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I think TCIL's selldown is not unrelated to C&C's misfortune in SGX. Not so much the worry about Yen strength, as that has been factored in since the fall of TCIL from the >$2 range. TCIL was trading at $1.2 at the beginning of the economy recovery in early 1999. Doesn't make sense for it to return to that level after a year of solid sales (if what we read in the papers about strong Nissan sales is true). Vested interest as of today. |
| (Post 36 of 503) 01/11/2000.23:38:00 |
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Same tragedy happen on Inch Motor share price too. Rdgs |
| (Post 37 of 503) 01/12/2000.01:00:00 |
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Hi Lion, The supposely symmetrical triangle breakout on the downside is close to the apex, making it unreliable. Furthermore, RSI chart is showing positive divergence. In my opinion, barring a market crash, any further downsides will be limited in the near term. PS: Do you notice a small falling wedge forming? :) Have little vested interest. |
| (Post 38 of 503) 01/12/2000.09:33:00 |
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Zacky, 1st of all, I dun think that was too close to the Apex. 2nd, as mentioned, marginally brkoff. 3rd, most important I look at 100days MA movements. As for falling wedge, hmmm... dun detect any leh...(or would u like to point out ?) Rdgs |
| (Post 39 of 503) 01/17/2000.17:09:00 |
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what happen to this counter ? 1.5 shld be a very strong support and yet it slides further now.... how ? |
| (Post 40 of 503) 01/17/2000.19:44:00 |
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today mrkt selldown dun even spare tcil, i tought 1.45 is a strong support, that broke too, watchout for the next support at 1.40. if that broke, it will be terrible. guess it is one of the few clob share being neglected. it would be better if it can switch to main board. |
| (Post 41 of 503) 01/28/2000.21:16:00 |
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Valuing the motor distribution business RNAV in HK$ Earnings per share FY99 0.923 - Less EPS from property portfolio 0.1 Net EPS attributable to Motor & other business 0.823 P/E (x) 18 Value attached to motor distribution business 148.2 Value of property portfolio 165.4 Total value, inclusive of property value 3.14 Fair value, assume 20% discount for property portfolio HK$2.81 |
| (Post 42 of 503) 01/28/2000.21:22:00 |
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Strange how TCIL has fared recently, the sell down does not really justify its earning. Any explaination? |
| (Post 43 of 503) 01/28/2000.23:11:00 |
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This is just coffeshop talk with my father-in-law, you understand... "Not only price of Mercedes will go down, price of all other cars will go down, because the other distributors use Mercedes as a gold standard." Whatever that means. I believe he was talking about profit margins. |
| (Post 44 of 503) 01/28/2000.23:40:00 |
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Listen to the wisdoms of father(s)-in-law and uncles, young man. MC will not stand for insolence from GP who reads charts of GES instead of ECG, and whose heart pumps to each tick of the STI. (If you'll still answer a question after the scolding: What is a "tick" in simple English? I thought it is some kind of bug or a flea.) |
| (Post 45 of 503) 01/29/2000.01:27:00 |
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Anyone who maybe interested in TA, pls refer back postings on : Tuesday, January 11, 2000 - 10:58 pm Rdgs |
| (Post 46 of 503) 01/29/2000.02:21:00 |
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Further update on TCIL :  Note the written msg. Now then I know THE POWER OF META !!! Rdgs |
| (Post 47 of 503) 01/30/2000.15:40:00 |
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lion, i almost wanted to bo some last week at 1.4, but seeing its macd still in minus region worry me. will wait til it cross over signal line. tcil was sold down badly cos of the hangover from c&c and the solddown in pprty ctrs, it has both of them. but i will say the sunny sky will come one day, probably in mar/apr when the pprty start to rally back. |
| (Post 48 of 503) 01/30/2000.16:07:00 |
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lion, do you know how elliot wave look on tcil? it looks like wave 3 of C or wave 5 of C. |
| (Post 49 of 503) 01/30/2000.16:44:00 |
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Netcom, About Elliot Wave, sorry but I hav no answers to it. As u can see, I've never (or hardly) use Elliot Wave on my chart. Sad to say that I only know 5 waves UP, and 3 wave DN. Rdgs |
| (Post 50 of 503) 01/31/2000.22:09:00 |
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lion, i think it has hit bottom and rebound is in sight |
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