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(Post 1 of 10926) 01/19/2001.15:42:04 |
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Dear forumers,
We are currently doing maintenance on the Venture discussion thread. Meantime, please continue posting discussions on Venture here. |
| (Post 2 of 10926) 01/19/2001.15:46:02 |
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Trendtrader! like to chek with u on the lots done at 15.7? someone unload at 15.7 in bulk?
thank u ! |
| (Post 3 of 10926) 01/19/2001.16:02:21 |
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Kumuro,
According to SI's Intraday Price/Volume Movement, 1 trade of 70 lots thrown by somebody at 1531 hrs and 1 trade of 46 lots grabbed by someone at 1543 hrs. |
| (Post 4 of 10926) 01/19/2001.16:08:49 |
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maybe somebody who got venture stocking option and actived just now. |
| (Post 5 of 10926) 01/19/2001.16:08:09 |
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Hi Guys,
If the 100+ lots queueing to buy at $15.50 disappears, it means funds have "siew kang liao" and that's the time to short and/or watch for dips to enter. Kumuro, You may want to consider throwing yours at $15.70, if you still can in order not to incur a loss. Looks like there are enough people selling at $15.60/$15.70 to feed the FMs' buy orders. |
| (Post 6 of 10926) 01/19/2001.16:09:10 |
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Trendtrader! Thank u !! |
| (Post 7 of 10926) 01/19/2001.16:21:54 |
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TT,
is 22/23/26 trading days. i cant decide to take profit or not on my last lot. does any one know wat the buying in from sgx for those who shorted on monday?? thks |
| (Post 8 of 10926) 01/19/2001.22:55:56 |
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Hi TT, I was busy crying the whole day. I bot at 14.40 for venture 1 lot but sold it early in the morning at only 15.10. Not enough to cover all my losses. Besides I sold my datacraft at 6.15 this morning only to see it climb higher. I was really unlucky. Anyway, I got the info from my broker. Some of his client shorted on monday but didn't cover back. He told me that the buy back price was at 15.70 per lot. Although the closing price was at 14.40 the previous but SGX reserve the right to buy back the share base on the previous day closing or the current price whichever is higher. I know Titan shorted 6 lots, wonder if he bot back any,when the price fall yesterday. I wanted to buy again this afternoon but got no GUTS. What do you think the price will be on monday? I think it will probably go down a bit due to profit taking if nasdaq fly tonight. I shall buy 2 lots on any weakness. |
| (Post 9 of 10926) 01/19/2001.16:33:21 |
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This will be the last push up!!
anyway nasdaq futures are easing now! still deciding!  |
| (Post 10 of 10926) 01/19/2001.16:34:25 |
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Opptunist,
22nd and 26th are normal trading days. 23rd will be a half day until 12.30 pm and after that, it will be "Tong Tong Chiiangggggg!" OK? Ai ya! Chiak today lah! One profit in your pocket is worth two on paper. If skarly Nasdaq takes profit tonight, then you ai wan too bad. If Nasdaq rallies again, then next week we cheong lah! You decide.  |
| (Post 11 of 10926) 01/19/2001.16:38:24 |
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TT,
thks for reply. i think i keep the last one incase monday it opens with a BANG. but will sell immediately if it breaks 15.40 today or monday.sitting on profit now. cheers everyone. |
| (Post 12 of 10926) 01/19/2001.16:46:00 |
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shortist where are you...kakakkaka
cover ..quick |
| (Post 13 of 10926) 01/19/2001.17:06:21 |
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Trendtrader! I decided to hold on till monday!
u have a great weekend ahead! |
| (Post 14 of 10926) 01/19/2001.17:58:25 |
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Wow! What a day! I am just glad that those who have been following the postings here since Wednesday and who bought in, made money today. After going through a losing streak for so long, we all deserve to make $$$$$$$ for a change.
Djinni, I was thinking of what I said to you yesterday - Today, we look at our monitor and it says Venture : BUY $15.40 : SELL $15.50 and we say "Alamak!!! If only I know that it will go up so high, yesterday I would have closed my eyes and ka ka BUY!" Well, today, we saw $15.80! It's like a dream come true. Deep inside, I thought we would see only $15.30 or at most $15.40 today. $15.80 was beyond my imagination. But when the counter opened strongly this morning at $14.90, ie. a gap of 50 cents, I revised my expectations to $16.00. If not for the fact that today is a Friday, there would have been less selling and Venture would have touched $16.00. It does look like funds have not completely filled their BUY orders. Their buying was strong lasting all the way to the end. But I also sensed that there was no urgency in their buying. They did not mind leaving open positions in the hope of buying cheaper on Monday. If Nasdaq should have a correction tonight and Venture open lower on Monday, we will have to watch out for accumulation by funds to know when to hop on. Since funds are still buying, shorting is out for the moment. If you can, please give me a briefing/analysis on how to trade in PCI, Natbroad and Datacraft. The rest of you guys are also welcome to chip in. All feedback and views will be sentimentally appreciated. Hope you people enjoy the sweetness of your profits. And do have a great weekend! Titan, I did not forget you. You were on my mind and I did try to post my message to you but there was some technical hitch just now because SI was doing maintenance work on Venture Forum. My message was rejected. Why can't the maintenance work be done after trading hours, I wonder? I was going to suggest to you that perhaps, in view of the strong upmoves today, you should buy to hedge against your short positions which you left open on Monday. See how it goes on Monday and I will offer some suggestions. Take care, Titan. All is not lost. You will live to fight another day. The market is always there. And opportunities await you. If you had been following the postings here and did jump in yesterday and/or today, do let us know if you made money too. Regards. PS: Did you guys notice that thanks to you people, Venture was occupying the top position under the Active Discussion column for almost the whole day? I am sure the noise we made attracted other people to come in to have a look-see. Cheers! |
| (Post 15 of 10926) 01/19/2001.22:18:57 |
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think it will hit 17.00? i believe it will, probably not Mon but next week. I entered at 13.20 and almost sold at 14.00. Then saw it going down. But had faith, it can go higher. then came today. next target is 17.00 within this month. |
| (Post 16 of 10926) 01/19/2001.18:06:45 |
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Those who short on monday and leave their position open was bot back by sgx at 15.70 a lot. |
| (Post 17 of 10926) 01/19/2001.18:10:40 |
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Hi Msaclim,
Did not see you the whole day. Made money today? Anyway, can share how you got the info on Sgx's buy-in price? Thanks. |
| (Post 18 of 10926) 01/20/2001.00:06:46 |
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Hi Billion!
Good evening and welcome! Are you an old bird here with renewed interest in Venture or are you a new bird here to learn old tricks about trading in Venture? Just kidding.
Wow! Bought at $13.20 and still holding on! At $15.80, a cool gain of $2.60 per lot! How many lots? 50? Well, 50 lots at $13.20 works out to only $660,000.00, which is "sup sup soey" for a Billion.
Well, if you are still holding on to your $13.20 despite all that wild roller coaster ride (meaning, high blood pleasure and heavy breathing and your heart beating like on your first date when you were preparing to grab her hand), I can see that you are an old faithful and die-hard fan of Venture. Good for you! And congrats! Confidence is good but over confidence can erode your profits if you set too high a price target to exit and become so sentimentally attached to it that even when the counter slides and you see your profits vapourising with each bid going lower, and because you are so convinced that the price will reach your target that you "ngaeh see mai pang", that may ruin you. $17.00? Mmmmmmm........... I suppose if funds continue to push it to $16.00 next week and then Uncle Allan gives the market an Ang Pow on 30.1.2001, then perhaps, $17.00 is not an unrealistic target. Coupled with Venture reporting good results and coming in within expectations, I suppose even $18.00 is achievable, though it will also quickly fall back in line together with the rest of the market once all the good news are out. It will be a case of BORSON, ie. Buy On Rumours, Sell On News. At $17.00, your gain will be a whopping $3.80 per lot. Well, good for you if you hit your intended price target but do not be sentimental about your conviction over how high the price should climb to. Also listen to the market, instead of only to your heart. If the downstream current is simply too strong as a result of which the price keeps sliding, and you bite the bullet, if you are unlucky, the bullet may break and you'll taste the gunpowder. Take my experience with Chrt as a good illustration. I bought at $7.55. It went up to $7.90, then $8.55, then $9.00, then $9.55 and eventually $9.95. I was sitting on a paper profit of $2.40 but I held on because people were saying $10.50 and $11.00 and so on. Then came the strong undercurrent and I bit the bullet. Each day, I saw my profits vapourising by 30 to 50 cents for the next 7 or more consecutive sessions until I went underwater. I bit the bullet so hard that it bengkoek. In the end, I spat the bullet out. Can't use already, its bengkoek! If funds don't sell from now until the end of the month, your price target of $17.00 is achievable provided Nasdaq continues to be resilient and the interest rate cut is given on or before 30.1.2001. If the cut is postponed, the market having factored the cut into prices already, will react negatively to the news and sell. If that happens, then $17.00 or not, you better run and not hope against hope. Msaclim, It's okay. Don't cry. Kwai kwai okay? The market is always there for you to milk it again. Yes, I know it is very frustrating to sell only to see the price runs up but it is still better than you short and the price says "Bye Bye" to you and runs up. That happened to me and Titan earlier in the week. And to you also right??!!! Ya, you were the hero who ka ka short at $13.50. I will read what market watchers say about Nasdaq after the close and post my views on Venture over the weekend. Just a reminder - Forum will be inaccessible from 9 am to 3 pm on Saturday. Good night guys! |
| (Post 19 of 10926) 01/20/2001.00:19:07 |
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Hi Trendtrader,
Though ur article is addressed to Billion, I find it relevant to many of us forumers here. Looking forward to ur weekend postings. Good nite & have a good weekend ! |
| (Post 20 of 10926) 01/20/2001.01:37:17 |
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Good day to you, Trendtrader,
I am hoping to learn from you. A question : If the funds are the big players, do they win(make money) everytime they come in? If so then who is losing money? U make money, I make money, someone must be losing money when the market corrects. I still cannot see the picture that it is actually the funds that manipulate the prices. Most probably just bigger players that trade shortterm for a quick profit. But I must say they are damngood to be able to win each time. Thanks in advance. |
| (Post 21 of 10926) 01/20/2001.02:16:44 |
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Hi TT
I actually withdrew my Q @ $15.40 and tried $15.50 instead. However, no luck. The price just went higher and higher, until it closed at a high of $15.80!! Guess I'll miss the ride this time round, if any. No regrets as I already have 2 positions left open over the weekend (PCI & Omni). Dun really want another one.  If Monday dips, and funds dun sell, I'll take the chance to BOD again. These are truly exciting times.
Just a question. Do u think a correction will come anytime now? It has already surged up 2 days in a row. It can't go on forever.....or can it? Will we see $20 this month??? (wah.....being super-optimistic) 
As for PCI, for the moment, any price below $1.35 would be a good price to go in. Funds are still holding on to it. Saw another few trades of 500 lots done at sellers price....all @ $1.37. Most of the buys today by the funds were done between $1.34 & $1.37. Nearest resistance is @ $1.40, support @ $1.25 (I might be wrong). Failed to puncture the resistance today  . If u looking for quick punt, buy around $1.35/$1.36, sell around $1.38/$1.39. On normal day, trading range is very limited, unless funds decide to do something. PCI's play involves largely around the takeover story, and ING's valuation report that it is valued @ US$1.40. Once there is denial, RUN for your life, and short it at the same time. 'Ka ka' whack 50, 60, 70 lots. Sure make one, cuz everyone will be busy throwing. But dun be too greedy lah. 4 or 5 bids can start covering already, unless the selling is super ferocious. If u believe the stories, and follow the funds, then sell only when they start throwing. In any case, I'm still holding 10 lots (2 @ $1.33, 8 @ $1.35) if u happen to be wondering. Err....btw, me still negative on PCI hor Made some bad decisions/losses a few weeks back. Have yet to cover back those losses completely. Same for Venture. Err... am I making any sense? It's 2am in the morning.....not in a very clear frame of mind...
Enuff of PCI. To the rest of u, paiseh huh.....sidetrack a bit. Kumuro U haven't take profit?!??!?
Cheers everyone, and have a great weekend.
Cya back here in the living room on Monday. |
| (Post 22 of 10926) 01/20/2001.07:47:29 |
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TrendTrader , Djini!
Guess I have a good and exciting trading week.... did occur some losses and at the same time did lock in some hefty profit! did my mistake on TPA and cut loss! but just a small lost compare to the profit i lock in for venture and datacraft! I loaded up venture at 15.5 another 2 more lots and PCI another 10 lots which make my avg price of ard 1.335..! I will cut my loss on venture if it touches 15.2 and for PCI i will cut my loss at 1.29! Nasdaq closed just a fraction higher! Monday come , I do see a little surge on venture where the support level on 15.5 was really solid! i will sell off my 2 lots if it by pass 16 dollars! I cut my loss on natbroad when the denial was out! thats the principle i apply when cutting of losses, one must be really discipline if not the losses may extend to a greater margin! As for PCI..... the reason for me loading up again was that the denial was out and i do see buying in bulks and the price maintaining quite well at 1.35! well, there are lots of rumours out there...... might be a making of syndicate trying to read our mind for us to take over their baby! ( They are a bunch of psychiatrist ) but then if one look at the bright side and think that the talk has been finalised one will load up PCI at this moment ( Im one of them!) but i will still cut loss if it drop below 1.29 and hold on to it as long as its above my buying price and wait for the " FINAL JUDGEMENT "
In any case that it may move above 1.43 i may consider to lock in some profit.... and hold on the others! Currently I am just holding on to venture and PCI! creative is catching my eyes! and i am waiting for a pull back on datacraft and i forsee that it will test the 7 dollar mark really soon! Anyway just to share with u guys that i do have some news on PCI that the talk has been finalised... but then( who knows, only if i know chuan hup family then maybe i can get some news! )... but then its a 50-50 bet for now! but i guess its still a good bet.... if it drop and u apply your cut loss... then u will only lose about 4-5 cents... but then if its true u will make a hefty profit of almost 70% ! hmm.... thats about it! going to buy myself MP3 Player! and Nike Shoes! Im a nike shoe fan!!! cheers! good luck! |
| (Post 23 of 10926) 01/20/2001.08:45:31 |
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Good Morning Efes, Pcong, Djinni & Kumuro and Everyone else,
What a pleasant way to wake up this morning! This is the FIRST time that I see postings from you guys after trading hours on a Friday evening. In the past, you guys will just disappear after the closing bell on a Friday and I won't get to hear from any one of you until Sunday evening, if I am lucky, and if not, then until Monday. So much so that I have gotten used to being disappointed whenever I logged on to this forum on a Friday evening and throughout the weekend. But I saw Billion's message and I wanted to acknowledge his presence, welcome him, thank him for his sharing, and congratulate him for his successful love affair with Venture. So, I posted my midnight message. At that time, I noticed that Nasdaq had eased off to +2 points although it opened rather strongly and rose to +44 points in the early minutes of trading. But as it was still too early to say which direction Nasdaq would end up in, I refrained from commenting on Venture's possible direction for next week. Yes, Efes, it does not matter who my posting is addressed to. Any general comments or views in my postings are meant for everyone else who is interested. Similarly, when I read you guys' postings, I feel the same way. The posting may be addressed to someone else but any thing of general interest therein will interest me. Anyway, the sole purpose of this message is to thank all of you for your past midnight postings and to tell you how much I appreciate your doing so and to tell you they make a brighter Saturday morning for me. Kumuro, looks like you are consistently an early bird. Have a great weekend ahead. See you guys later. I'll probably post in the evening. Cheers! |
| (Post 24 of 10926) 01/20/2001.09:09:02 |
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Trendtrader,
Good morning to you!! How do you think Venture and Omni will perform come Monday? Continued buy orders?? What is the traditional day before CNY sentiment ??? Tks. |
| (Post 25 of 10926) 01/20/2001.20:08:50 |
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Could anyone enlighten me on medium term sell target for Venture?
Is $18/- reasonable? Actually another reasonable figure is about 18.60 based on 10.50 + [0.38 x (32.00 - 10.50)]. This counter had a 52-week intraday high of 32.00 and a intraday low of 10.50. Thks in advance. |
| (Post 26 of 10926) 01/20/2001.23:03:55 |
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Coolwater, interesting formula. What is 0.38 ? some kind of risk factor, kindly enlighten...  |
| (Post 27 of 10926) 01/21/2001.00:03:16 |
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It's a Fibonacci number. Just do a search on Google for "fibonacci". |
| (Post 28 of 10926) 01/21/2001.00:51:41 |
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Hi Kind_doctor,
Nice to see you at this thread. Can you kindly share what Fibonacci is all about, particularly, its basis, its rationale and why it is an accurate measure of a stock's future price direction. Thanks. As for the rest of you guys, so sorry to keep you waiting. I would like to take some time to go through the other threads to gather views and data and to collect a few samples of market sentiments before posting my views. In other that my views be independent, I have already come to a view. I am just sending out my feelers now to look-see elsewhere to ascertain how others are feeling. When I've finished snooping around and if I have the inspiration, I'll post. If not, please bear with me until tomorrow afternoon. Sorry again that I did not meet my own dateline. Cheers! |
| (Post 29 of 10926) 01/21/2001.01:58:07 |
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From what I understand this guy Fibonacci was semi-mystical. Apparently studied the Egyptian pyramids and got inspired by certain mathematical ratios and progressions. I've never understood the beauty of mathematics, as one of my friends put it, but it's one of those things.
Anyway, I think it's mainly empirical. I really don't understand the basis of why they should work, but in practice they seem to be pretty useful. Perhaps because lots of traders use them? You know the old existentialist question - "If a tree falls in the forest, and nobody was around, did it make a noise when it fell?" If many traders look to Fibonacci supports and resistances, it kind of becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, doesn't it? Kind of like quantum physics - it becomes true only because enough people observe it to be true. OK enough of that. Look at the chart below. Many of the peaks and troughs "coincidentally" happen to be at the Fibonacci retracement levels (even retrospectively!), which is drawn from the highest peak to the lowest trough. It's useful because you know when the share price is going to hit a resistance level or find a support level, and can time your moves based on this. You're not going to buy just before it hits a resistance level, but just after it's about to bounce off a support. By the way, the arrow marks a breakout from a descending wedge. Bullish. |
| (Post 30 of 10926) 01/21/2001.02:13:37 |
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Hi Kind_doctor,
Really very kind of you to share that piece of interesting information. Now you've gotten me interested to read up more about Fibonacci's theory. Care to recommend a good book which hopefully will not cost an arm or a leg? By the way, I did not see any charts accompanying your last posting. What must I do to make those charts appear? I did click on that little whatever you put there at the end of your posting but nothing happened. I am not computer savvy so please be gentle when you give me step by step instructions on what I must do to bring on those charts. Hey, really, really appreciate your time and trouble. Thanks. |
| (Post 31 of 10926) 01/21/2001.02:15:41 |
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Kind_doctor,
After posting my previous message, I went back into the forum to check my message and strangely, now I see the charts. But what to make out of it? How to read it? Can I trouble you again? Thanks! Regards. |
| (Post 32 of 10926) 01/21/2001.02:28:48 |
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See the two horizontal solid blue lines? They are drawn at the peak and the trough. In between, the horizontal dotted blue lines, are the reatracement levels (approx 38%, 50% and 61% or something like that).
The theory (or belief, if you will), is that stock prices will retrace their steps up to these ratios, and meet with resistance or support. The price of Venture has already reached the first dotted blue line, so some price resistance can be expected. That means it MAY stop at the blue dotted line and turn downwards. If it penetrates that line, the next resistance will be the next dotted blue line. Simple, ainit? Similarly, once the dotted blue line has been penetrated, it acts as a support for the price. Hope that helps. |
| (Post 33 of 10926) 01/21/2001.02:55:20 |
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Kind_doctor,
That was cool! Thanks! So according to Fibonacci theory, if Venture can penetrate $16.00, it may then continue its rise to the next resistance at $19.00. But if the resistance at $16.00 breaks, then where is the next support? I don't see any blue dotted line below but only a blue continuous line which may not be a Fibonacci retracement level, right? Can you also direct me to Trader's Club. I "overheard" your conversation with....can't remember his name at the (I think) Writings on the Wall thread. Would like to learn from their articles and techniques. Thanks again. |
| (Post 34 of 10926) 01/21/2001.03:07:28 |
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Trendtrader ,
Go here:
http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/fibonacci.html http://www.elliottwave.com/tutorial/newuser.asp the second sites has a very good explanation on Fibonacci. Cheers!! |
| (Post 35 of 10926) 01/21/2001.03:19:51 |
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Trendtrader,
You can find Trader's Club here |
| (Post 36 of 10926) 01/21/2001.08:39:29 |
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Good Morning Guys! reading up all the article of FIBOO WHAT NACI!!! heheheheheh!!! thats interesting!
thank u for the explanation on the charting, kind-doc! Do u actually draw the dotted line on every 3 dollars? where do we start from drawing the dotted line? to what i realise is that u started to draw the dotted line at 5 dollars up... and then with every 3 dollars up the dotted line are drawn again! hmm... sorry for being so stupid in this area!! I maybe asking a very stupid question but i am really curious! Hey.... Trendtrader..... how are u today? I am not a early bird! just sleep early at night sometimes during the week days i sleep less than 5 hrs a day!! wow...... no worries still handsome! heheheh!
still available! Wanna tell me more on how u short and some scenario to add in? thank u !
today weather is really good! But i think i will be staying at home to play STARCRAFT again! Im a addict to starcraft!
BREAKFAST TIME! see u guys later!! bye !! |
| (Post 37 of 10926) 01/21/2001.08:52:16 |
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Trendtrader! do u know what are the counters that are related to phillippines? Ionics..... and what other counters? i think their market will take a boost on monday.... new president sworn in!
just my point of view! maybe not! any comment? ok really got to eat !! HUNGRY!!!!!!! LIKE !!!!!! A !!!!! HIPPO!!!! |
| (Post 38 of 10926) 01/21/2001.10:15:12 |
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Thks a lot kind-doc for explaining fb theory and the chart. Based on my calculation (maybe I'm wrong), the first resistance shd be at $18.98, ie 11.00 + 0.38[32.00 - 11.00], nearly 19.00 and not 16.00 that you mentioned. Hope you or some experts could help me out. |
| (Post 39 of 10926) 01/21/2001.12:42:41 |
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Did anyone join the competition on the asiamarkets.com??
anyone here make a profit of a combine score of more than 300K?? pls let me know so that i know if i get a chance to goto hawaii!! hehehehehe!!!! see u guys later!!! btw beside ionics what other phillipines counters are trading in singapore? thank u once again! |
| (Post 40 of 10926) 01/21/2001.14:20:37 |
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OutLook...... for the week!
I probably think that the sentiment will still be in favour of venture and other manufacturing companies as good results from US that no longer dampened the sentiment of cutting orders from manufacturer! So probably we will still see some positive momentum up but along the way there will be some profit taking so i guess it will not move like what it moves on friday! Dell - 25.625 up 1.4375 Compaq - 20.5 up 1.31 Microsoft - 61 up 5.5
any comment ? Dont bomb me ok! just to share my thoughts! its hot today! hmm... feels like jumping into a pool!!
good day all! |
| (Post 41 of 10926) 01/21/2001.14:34:20 |
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some information to share!
This are some of venture customers..... correct me if im wrong...
Friday US closing price! iomega - 3.67 up 0.17 NEC - 109 up 4 motorola - 24.6875 up .75 hp - 39.75 up .125 ibm - 111.25 up 2.9375 so maybe still positive for venture!
good luck!! |
| (Post 42 of 10926) 01/21/2001.14:34:54 |
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Hi Everyone,
Just came back from biz trip. Venture looks good and healthy last week. Anyone knows when Venture will be announcing their results? How's the performance? Hope the CNY rally can lift the market this week. Got 2 lots at $15+ on Friday before close.
Hello to Trendtrader and all. Have a great weekend and good luck to all. |
| (Post 43 of 10926) 01/21/2001.14:42:38 |
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oops!! did i miss out CISCO???
csco - 40.375 down 1.5
heheheh again correct me if im wrong!! welcome back joy2k! I think the results will be in MARCH 2001? am i right or wrong? let me know too!!
see ya! |
| (Post 44 of 10926) 01/21/2001.14:57:23 |
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Hi Trendtrader,
Do you know who is buying Venture last week? Did any foreign fund or has ML buy ? Are you following Chartered lately? Also interested to know if ML or any foreign fund is loading this counter. If they are loading these counters, then we might expect some good report or at least no bad comment from them.
Hope someone have some info to share. Thank you. Cheers. |
| (Post 45 of 10926) 01/21/2001.15:00:34 |
| Author : |
Kumuro
Vested interest in Del Monte and Fastech. Both related to Philippines. However, suggest you put money in Fastech for more upside. Got some at near bottom last week to average down. |
| (Post 46 of 10926) 01/21/2001.17:27:23 |
| Author : |
Easytrader! I will be looking at ionic and Fastech!
thank u ! fastech is currently trading at ipo price.... ??? its ipo was usd.32? so after conversion it should be ard .52....?? thank u ! |
| (Post 47 of 10926) 01/21/2001.18:38:22 |
| Author : |
Hi Pals,
A good afternoon to all of you. Ever since the market closed on Friday, I have been thinking and thinking about what will be the likely scenario on Monday and also what lies beyond the horizon after 31.1.2001. Prior to reading what market watchers at Nasdaq had to say and also prior to snooping around the other threads to gather market sentiments, I formed the following preliminary views: 1. Venture has climbed substantially from its recent support level at $13.60 to the current $15.80 level (a gain of $2.20) which unfortunately is also very, very close to its next resistance at $16.00/$16.10. In fact, much too close for comfort. I was thinking, is it time for a correction? This has happened before. I have seen it before recently where Funds bought aggressively for 4 days from 31.10.2000 to 3.11.2000 and pushed up the counter from $16.30 to $19.20 (which is also a resistance level). On the 4th day, after they have filled up all their buy orders at $19.10, they abruptly stopped buying and when that happened, people rushed in to sell and that very same day, Venture dropped all the way down to $17.80 (a sharp drop of $1.30!) before bargain hunting emerged and enabled the price to recover to close at $18.20. And that was indeed the beginning of a correction because the next day, Venture traded between $17.10 to $18.20 and closed at $17.30. Thereafter, it was all the way down as the bears had arrived. That is why I could not help feeling a little uncomfortable. 2. In view of the coming holidays, trading volume is expected to be thin throughout the week because some investors will stay away from the market. This means there will be little buying interest. On top of that, investors with stocks may not feel comfortable about sitting on their paper profits because they will be powerless to act if Nasdaq should undergo a correction this week. Nasdaq had seen impressive gains over the last 2 weeks when it bounced up from around 2200 points to its current 2770 points, a gain of 570 points! There will be a temptation to take profits. Afterall, everybody knows that a market cannot sustain an upward move continuously without taking a breather. Is a correction about due now? If so, there will be some selling tomorrow. A marketplace where there are more sellers, who are eager to sell and little buyers, who will buy only on dips, will mean a sizeable back-pedalling of the price, UNLESS, Funds continue to buy. If Funds do buy and they show a little patience and take advantage of the above situation, they can collect and fill their orders without any significant movement in the price. If that happens, whether we should go in at the same price which Funds are accumulating at, to await the next FOMC meeting, or wait for Funds to stop buying, and then buy during the dips, will depend on your own assessment of: (i) whether Funds will stop buying some time in the course of Monday or by Tuesday (half day), or whether they will keep buying until Friday or even until next Tuesday, and (ii) whether Nasdaq will see a correction on Thursday night. A correction on Tuesday or Wednesday night may not have any significant impact. But Nasdaq's overnight performance on Thursday will be crucial. Our market will react to it on Friday morning. You will recall that last Friday, I was waiting for Funds to stop buying so that I can go in during the dips. It did not happen. Funds kept buying till the end. When it became evident towards the last 20 minutes that Funds were still buying, I did not hop on then because I was banging on Nasdaq to have a correction that night. That correction did not occur too. Whether my decision not to buy on Friday was correct or not, I will know on Monday if I have to pay more than $15.70/$15.80 for Venture. 3.. The third preliminary view I formed was regarding the outlook for tech stocks beyond 31.1.2001. I was wondering if all the current buying frenzy are only and exclusively for and in anticipation of another rate cut on 30.1.2001, and nothing more. If the cut is not given, then we all know what will happen. The market will sell and run. If it is given, will we see a rally? Or will it be a case of BORSON? What will happen after that? Reality will set in again; investors' focus will return to the reporting season; all the good news are already out and the next FOMC meeting will be too far away to have any impact on short term traders; what will happen to tech stocks then? A major correction and a return to the $12.50 to $13.70 price range for Venture? The reason why I thought about this was because if I were to load up heavily on Venture now and everything which I do not want to see in fact comes true, then I will be buying heavily into a resistance level (at a price of $15.80 to $16.00), only to have my stocks go through a major correction back to the $12.50 to $13.70 price level. That will translate into a loss of $2.10 to $3.50 per lot. The above was my preliminary view. After snooping around, I made the following discoveries. 1. Both Tanker and Wavetrader believe that Nasdaq had bottomed out when it was at the 2200 plus region and Wavetrader believes that a Wave-3 (impulsive and powerful upmove) from here could be in the making. 2. Some forumers at Chrt are saying that the bull has returned and that those who did not buy are better advised to jump in on Monday if they do not wish to be left behind. On the other hand, there are some forumers warning that Nasdaq has risen by too much and too quickly and that a correction is due. 3. In his website, Wavetrader gave a wavecount for Venture for the medium term which has an upside of possibly $19.00 but he did warn that corrections on the way up are to be expected. He did not elaborate on the price level at which corrections can be expected. In my discussions with Kind_doctor (really kind of him to oblige me on our first date, hee!) found in the earlier postings in this thread, he shared with us Fibonacci's theory advising that Venture may have a retracement upon hitting the next resistance at $16.00. I guess if she breaks that resistance convincingly, we can then look forward to the next resistance at $17.00/$17.10, then $18.00/$18.10 and $19.00/$19.10. Because Venture's upper resistance levels are at the beginning of each dollar, they are easy to remember. 4. The following are what market watchers at Nasdaq have said: - The bulls have not arrived yet but the bears are certainly retreating. - Don't fight the Fed if the Fed is in the process of cutting rates. - More liquidity is returning to the market from money markets and this is good news for equities. - Sentiments have improved substantially and investors are beginning to take some risks with stocks. - Alot of sidelined cash coming back into the market as the market is oversold and investors don't want to miss the ride up. - Enjoy the party but dance near the door (my favourite one). 5. Perhaps the most important thing to note is Nasdaq's Intraday Chart on Friday. This was what happened. Nasdaq opened strongly with a gap up at 2840. Immediately, it plunged (yes, PLUNGED) almost in a straight line down (interrupted by only one small recovery) all the way to 2752, ie. by a hefty 88 points during the first hour of trading! To me, that meant heavy profit taking by investors followed by bargain hunters/sideliners jumping in to buy at the dips. The index then recovered to above water and a second round of profit taking set in to drive the index down to below water again but this time, it was only slightly below water when investors came in to buy again. It then went up to a point higher than the first recovery but profit taking again set in. This time, the profit taking was shallow and after retracing a short distance, the index recovered to a point much higher than the previous two recoveries. Profit taking then came in again a 4th time to plunge the index to slightly below water. Yet again, investors rushed in to support the index and up it went and thereafter there were around 3 major upmoves interrupted by 2 downmoves in between. What was significant was that each upmove was higher than the previous upmove, and the second downmove also ended at a level which was higher than the end of the first downmove. In other words, the index was going up with each high higher than the previous high and each low higher than the previous low. Also, the subsequent downmoves did not go below water. Then near to the closing hours, the index went all the way down interrupted by a couple of ups along the way down and it did eventually go below water twice but each time it did so, investors jumped in to buy on the dips. The index finally closed at +2 points, just above water. What do the above up and down moves mean to me? Different people will read charts differently. I read it as follows: 1. The correction at Nasdaq had already taken place. The index opened strongly with a gap up and in an almost uninterrupted fashion, investors took profits and caused prices (and the index) to plunge by 88 points within the first hour of trading. Thereafter, whenever there was a rebound, investors took profits again. In all, there were at least 9 occasions when investors took profits. In other words, it can be said that those weak holders, contra players and stale bulls who wanted to take profits HAD ALREADY DONE SO on Friday! 2. Each time the index plunged to below water (its lowest level being 2752 only, which was way above its major low of around 2200 before the rate cut), investors rushed in to buy on the dips. In other words, INVESTORS ARE NO LONGER WAITING AND HOPING FOR PRICES TO GO BACK TO THE 2200 REGION ANYMORE! THEY ARE AFRAID THAT IF THEY DO NOT JUMP IN NOW ON THE DIPS, THEY WILL MISS THE BOAT! FEAR and GREED HAVE RETURNED TO THE MARKET! This is very good news! What I will do tomorrow 1. Go through my bank statements to see how many bullets I have.
2. Watch out for signs of Funds buying or selling. If they are not selling and not buying either (I hope they won't buy), profit taking will come in and the price will dip. I will buy on dips. If it goes down, there should be some weak support at $15.40, then $15.10 and stronger support can be found at $14.80/$14.90. 2. If Funds sell, then better wait until they stop selling before you buy. But you may wish to short instead. 3. If Funds buy, then try to spot the price at which they are accumulating and enter at the same price. But I will not buy up with my entire budget for this counter. Tuesday is a half day. The lack of interest may cause prices to slip further. Wishing all a good trading day tomorrow. I have been working on this message since 2.00 pm with interruptions in between. Mrs Trendtrader is complaining already. So I'll try to anwser some of your questions another time, maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow. Sorry for writing so little. Thanks for bearing with me.
Cheers! |
| (Post 48 of 10926) 01/21/2001.18:55:49 |
| Author : |
Trendtrader,
Thanks for taking time to write such detailed thoughts on what to expect on each market day. I have been following your postings (btw - do you post in poems too , same username?) and have benefitted. Bought 2L of Venture @14.7 on Thursday, upon reading your posting. Sold off @15.70 on Friday. Venture has been one of my favourite stocks too, can make big and lose big as well if caught on the wrong side. Hope to follow you on your trading plan to make back some of my losses in the past. Keep up your good work and have a happy CNY. |
| (Post 49 of 10926) 01/21/2001.19:40:29 |
| Author : |
Trendtrader:
Your message was really well written and inciteful. Just wondering how does one determine if the funds are the ones buying or selling? is it by the volume of each trade?? and do you know where i can get some information on this? I especially think your analysis on friday's nasdaq movements made a lot of sense. i hope the funds see it the same way and continue to snap up tech stocks tomorrrow |
| (Post 50 of 10926) 01/21/2001.21:25:10 |
| Author : |
KD:
This is in response to your Msg 29 where u talked about Fibo levels. The use of Fibo ratios and Elliott Wave counts go hand in hand. But in your chart on Venture, I am afraid you have wrongly applied the Fibo levels. They are not meant to be used like the way u used. I dont think u can produce consistent or significant results from this way of applying Fibo levels. No doubt, your chart did look like there were some significance in the Fibo levels providing suport and resistance. But these should be more coincidence than anything. Are u able to produce more of such occurences in other charts? Its abit tedious to explain how to use Fibo levels here. But if u are really interested, u can check out "Fibonacci Ratios with Pattern recognition" by Larry Pesavento or "Trading with DiNapoli levels" by Joe DiNapoli. The 2nd book was a No. 1 Bestseller but its damn ex....US$165 ! HAPPY TRADING !! |
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