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(Post 1301 of 1480)   07/12/2004.19:02:45
Author :
Fundollar
WBL, My GUESStimates: net earnings(incl onetime items) could hit $74m for this FY Sep2004 or EPS of $0.436

2004
====
Q1's PAT = $*7,757,000, or 4.57c per share
Q2's PAT = $16,309,000, or 9.61c per share
===========================================
1st-Half PAT = $24.06m or 14.2c per share

Q3's BONUS: listing of MFI (Multi-fineline Electronix Inc) on NASDAQ (MFLX)
Post-IPO, WBL still held a 55.6% effective interest in MFLX
===> BAGGED a one-time gains of $21.9m (12.9c per share),
=====> only a question of whether it get booked into Q3 or Q4


All its business divisions(except property) are expected to continue improving into H2...
If earnings from normal business in Q3 & Q4 could each hit $14m (assume at slightly lower than Q2's PAT of $16.3m)
Then we could look forward to net earnings at some $74m or EPS of 43c !!! for current FY ending Sep2004

(P/S:-
I have vested interests in WBL...
Last week (05-09July), I sold some WBL shares for Portfolio's balancing reason. (and NOT becoz FAs unattractive)
As a result of this very posting, I shall refrain from any market actions on WBL for rest of this week



.
.
. Below Chart of some FY2003 figures & current FY2004's GUESStimates
.
.

(Post 1302 of 1480)   07/16/2004.13:23:58
Author :
Fundollar
Re-posting to attached Image

(Post 1303 of 1480)   07/16/2004.13:31:00
Author :
Fundollar
Transpac (TIH) : ASM TakeOver of TIH
Since ASM announced its Takeover Offer for TIH at $2.25 on 31-May2004
it's Open-market purchases of TIH shares, had NOT been very successful so far.
So far (since TakeOver announcement on 31-May), they ONLY manage to buy a total of 1,090,000 shares from the Open market.
.
====>(see Below attached Chart image)

BUT they have manage alot better with a couple of Off-market deals,
they manage to buy over from Panthon Asia a block of 5,718,000 shares (@$2.25)

this morning(16-July),
there was another Off-market block for 1,281,000 shares, married at $2.25 price
At this stage, it's still unclear if the buyer was also ASM,
the Seller is probably GK Goh Brokers.

.
.
.
Below chart: Show Daily Volumn Traded for TIH & ASM purchases ( Period: from 01-Jun till 15-July 2004)
.

(Post 1304 of 1480)   07/22/2004.10:34:13
Author :
Fundollar
Memtech: It's quite a attractive buy at current level ($0.45), look forward to FY-2004 earnings.

1st 5 months of 2004, revenue already hit $45.7m
that's already 67% of FY-2003's total revenue of $68.7m

1st-half revenue look set to hit $55m
Seasonality: It's strongest quarter is Q4
===> Implication: FY-2004 revenue should hit some $110m or some 60% higher than FY2003

Will revenue come at expense of margins ??
I dun know,
BUT it's margins was 24.9% for FY2002
& this improve to 30.7% for FY-2003


P/s:- I dun subscribe to IPO these days,
BUT I just makan some at 45c this morn, will double-up if can get below 40c


Industry wise:-
Motorola (its phone business division),
2004-Q2 revenue hit us$3.9 billion, a 67% jump from a year earlier., Q3 guidance point to continue strength.

==>> NB:- Motorola IS NOT among Memtech's customer, BUT indicate the industry demand.

===>> Motorola accounts for some 80% of MFI's revenue
=====>> it indicate a very strong Q2 for MFI too (that's WBL baby)


(Post 1305 of 1480)   07/22/2004.10:37:20
Author :
Moneytree
K1, sloggi

(Post 1306 of 1480)   07/22/2004.10:40:32
Author :
Fundollar
$3

(Post 1307 of 1480)   07/22/2004.10:43:52
Author :
Fundollar
WBL - I believe it's coming Q3 results (Apr-Jun2004) will excite alot of people...

Motorola (its phone business division),
2004-Q2 revenue hit us$3.9 billion, a 67% jump from a year earlier., Q3 guidance point to continue strength.

===>> Motorola accounts for some 80% of MFI's revenue
=====>> it indicate a very strong Q2 for MFI too (that's WBL baby)

AND this is ON-TOP of the onetime gains of $21.9m (that's 12.9c per WBL share), that WBL will get from the listing of MFI on NASDAQ last month

(Post 1308 of 1480)   07/22/2004.10:47:06
Author :
Moneytree
Fun$ K&N 183 chfs

(Post 1309 of 1480)   07/22/2004.11:28:28
Author :
Fundollar
SemLog: A case of "Head I win, Tail you lose" ???

Marriage with K&N: Strategic alliance for 5 years from Nov-2000, with each taking a 20% equity stake in the other
While SemLog took that 20% bite straight-away back in Nov-2000, (at 19.5% premium to market price at that time)
K&N only bitten 5%, at $9.48 per SemLog (that's $2.37 today, after adjusting for 1-into-4 stocksplit)
K&N still got options (extended twice and expiring this Dec) for a 15% stake in SemLog,
with excercise price fixed at $2.37 per share.
====>>> 15% stake of SemLog = some 128m SemLog shares

SemLog relationship with K&N at this stage
At best, it's can be describe as synergetic
At worse, it's still a case of "Head I win, Tail you lose" for SemLog

coz
20% K&N is worlth $1.206B or s$1.41 per SemLog share - if sold today
alternatively
K&N excercising their options will add 128m*$2.37 or s$302m to SemLog's coffer

ofcourse I dun know if they could keep on extending those options expiry-deadline indefinitely !!!

.
.
. A chart follows....
.

legend:-
SCL = SemCorp Logistics
Sci = mummy SemCorp Industries

(Post 1310 of 1480)   07/22/2004.11:29:21
Author :
Fundollar
Contents deleted... coz duplicate postings

(Post 1311 of 1480)   07/22/2004.11:30:29
Author :
Cio
hi FD

What do you think of Sembmarine's latest deal with Cosco?

(Post 1312 of 1480)   07/22/2004.11:34:00
Author :
Fundollar
Hi Cio,

FA need alot of time to monitor events over the years,

my apology... I dun follow SemMarine nor SemCorp Ind... so unable to comments.



for FA
no of companies you follow, is inversely proportionly to quality-of-your-life

(Post 1313 of 1480)   07/22/2004.11:42:09
Author :
Jun
Fun$

You rightly put it as synergetic

None of these will sell out as the business of logistics is a world wide network of synergetic infra-structure. You can be sure there will be extension for as long as it is below exercise price.

Do you know how does Semblog value this 20% investment in the book?

(Post 1314 of 1480)   07/22/2004.11:49:01
Author :
Mccool
But more profits could make higher quality of life affordable?

(Post 1315 of 1480)   07/22/2004.12:13:11
Author :
Fundollar
Mccool,
I have tasked KD to drag you out together to improve our QOL.
deadline by year end is not extendable

Jun,
agrees with your point 1 - quite unlikely they will sell,
BUT then never say forever, coz like marriages... if one of them found better bed-partners

cannot catch your Ques ""Do you know how does Semblog value this 20% investment in the book? ""

(Post 1316 of 1480)   07/22/2004.12:56:22
Author :
Moneytree
this is pure speculation but THERE IS NO SMOKE WITHOUT FIRE
(on Sembcorp Logistics...an alternative view)

on the globe, considerable behind the scene moves are being
made to rationalise the transportation and logistics sector and
this is Europe culminated in the Exel purchase of Tibbet
and Britten

it is inconceivable that K&N being the entity that she is ...
..is not a part of the process, be it amalgamation, acquisition
or an independent move

K&N has an option to further acquire another 15% of SLog in
the agreement inked in year 2000 but has asked for this option
to be extended and there is a timeline involved (K&N currently
owns 5% of SLog) as it cannot be forever

if one read between the lines it pbly signals, IMO, that the
alliance is one of unequal partnership (my personal view)
although SLog's bizness model in China is probably what K&N eyes

but if K&N has plans to be part of the pan european & global
logistics transformation then SLog's 20% stake will be a factor
that K&N has to contend with

remember that the 20% stake has a lock up period till end 2005
and if moves need be made then this 20% stake will be material
in any upcoming moves

hence it is not inconceivable that K&N maybe posturing to
buy back this stake and enable a rationalising of their bizness
and only by mutual consent can this parcel be unleashed at
an earlier date (i have no access to the inked deal and hence
cannot confirm this...but wud IMO be a logical conclusion)

if it is not K&N, then it may be another juz as large entity
(and this wud also involve K&N) that may be interested in the
SLog's 20% stake, otherwise the end 2005 moratorium wud apply

M&A activities are not something that can be worked on and inked
overnight and if the stock price of K&N (though in line with
earnings growth) is any indication ... then we can surmise that
something's cooking

n.b. K&N in 52 weeks moved from 105 chfs to a high of 188 chfs
in recent days and is now consolidating at 178 to 180 chfs...
it closed yestersday at 183

the price of SLog too, in recent days have moved in tandem
suggesting that such a scenario may be the reason or that some
big corporate moves which involve K&N may be in the making

..all this is pure speculation but THERE IS NO SMOKE WITHOUT FIRE
and they are my personal views and you trade at your own risk

(vested)

cheers and happy trading $3
(have not posted in a long time )

(Post 1317 of 1480)   07/22/2004.13:06:00
Author :
Bluesteel

(Post 1318 of 1480)   07/22/2004.13:21:49
Author :
Mccool
Hi Fun$, KD

Was suppose to have been 1st May... but I left it abit late in responding. My fault. Accept your deadline

(Post 1319 of 1480)   07/22/2004.13:23:35
Author :
Virgin
MC, long time no see Kind_Doctor...

(Post 1320 of 1480)   07/22/2004.14:10:18
Author :
Mccool
Virgin

(Post 1321 of 1480)   07/22/2004.14:13:28
Author :
Moneytree
MC

as we speak sloggi reaching $2.06

(Post 1322 of 1480)   07/22/2004.16:23:56
Author :
Fundollar
Mccool,

(Post 1323 of 1480)   07/23/2004.10:36:30
Author :
Fundollar
Guangzhao Forestry (now at $0.24) - watching watching....

I have no FA take on this one,
more over it's IPO financial figures were so out-dated... only providing up to Jun-2003 figures.


But below activities look interestings...
1) Below are parties who had taken up placements during IPO time at $0.22 a share

Name of Holders.....................No. of Shares
==============================================
See Hoy Chan Equities Pte Ltd****20,900,000
AIG Global Investment Corp*******15,000,000
DBS Asset Management*************10,000,000
Ng Han Meng @ Uinardi************10,000,000
Asianalysis Investment Mgt Ltd****8,000,000
United Overseas Bank Limited******3,000,000
Capital Intelligence Ltd************500,000
...(Guoco subsidiary)

2) and See Hoy Chan bought another 20.9m shares from Open market on 07-July-2004, at average price of $0.23227 each
Their direct interests is now 41m shares (8.22%), with another 4m deem interests

For the details, it is over ===> Here

3) I understand that this week, some analysts visited the Company in China,
I'm waiting to see if they come back revitalise from the fresh air there - and cheong !,
OR maybe get bitten by mosquitoes and die of malaria !!!

P/s:-
Me got vested interests, picked up some - more from a speculative angle

(Post 1324 of 1480)   07/27/2004.10:12:53
Author :
Jun
FunFun, how?

(Post 1325 of 1480)   07/27/2004.10:13:14
Author :
Jun
deleted

(Post 1326 of 1480)   07/27/2004.13:21:04
Author :
Fundollar
SemLog - A very good run, any way I have cashout a big portion of my holdings, including all those collected ===> over OVER HERE

K&N just reported it's 2004 1st-half results, a petty decent set of figures
but it's good to leave some profits for others around


K&N 2004-H1's Revenue up 20.5% to CHF 5,430 million & Net earnings up 16.7% to CHF 95.9 million
versus 2003-H1's revenue of CHF 4,507m and net earnings of CHF 82.2m

(NB: 2003-H2 figs were much stronger than H1 --> perhaps due to seasonal factors
2003-H2 revenue was CHF 5040.8m and net earnings was CHF 113.5m)


For the details on K&N 2004-H1 results, follow ===> this link

(Post 1327 of 1480)   07/27/2004.13:24:45
Author :
Fundollar
Wow Jun... why you constructing tall buildings in my home

(Post 1328 of 1480)   07/27/2004.13:44:38
Author :
Fundollar
HawPar, OUE , UOL

UOL - too crowded place, I dun like
but for diedhards,
you know there gonna be around $0.68 payout per share

SO one crude way to GUESSTIMATES may be:-
i) take the RNAV per share given in those recent circulars
ii) substract out $0.68 to get RNAV2
iii) subtract out $0.68 from prevalent market-price to get MP2
iv) Calculate the discount of MP2 to RNAV2
===> how the is the discount compare to the average property stocks out there !!!!

HawPar will report much better Q2 ,
- a $25.1m dividend boost from UOB
- better contribution from it's leisure arm (against lower base last-year (SARS) + contribution from ThaiLand's Underwater World
- 100% contribution from HawParHC ( privatise in Jun2003)

It's full-year could be a record..
..... there's potential for bumper dividend of $25.89m within 2nd-Half (from the 68c payout promised by UOL)

===> So long as HawPar dun end up as boxing gloves for Botak's other acquisitions,
then there are congruence of interests, to see HawPar increasing its dividend payout.


OUE - I have said many times in the past,
for divestment plays, OUE is the safest bet in WEE's stable,
BUT it will also be last to get attended to.

However we are now LESS than 2-years from the Bank non-core assets divestment "extended" deadline
==>> to be 2 days too late, or 22-months too earlier ! - it's a choice for yourself to make.

I GUESS (any-o-how guess one hoi) a value of around $9 should be attainable... when actions finally arrive.

P/S:- got some interests in HawPar & OUE

(Post 1329 of 1480)   07/27/2004.13:47:37
Author :
Mephisto
Fun$, for OUE, key is market condition prevailing in 22 months hor. IF got global recession, $9 is fat hope hor. (I also any-o-how guess one hoi)!

(Post 1330 of 1480)   07/27/2004.13:50:47
Author :
Fundollar
Mep, my "any-o-how" guess also got "any-o-how" discount factors facter-ed in already leh !

(Post 1331 of 1480)   07/27/2004.13:52:54
Author :
Mephisto
Fun$, wow, no wonder you having so much fun with the dollar! You sold your Memtech already?

(Post 1332 of 1480)   07/27/2004.14:15:36
Author :
Fundollar
Memtech... only one buy trade to-date.
... I'm waiting to see coming Half-year results

(Post 1333 of 1480)   07/30/2004.16:13:08
Author :
Fundollar
Bio-treat: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

... I had promise (back there) to write more details... so here it is:-
Investors kenna scare away, while Traders got suck over to other exciting areas.

The Good:
Bio-treat is in a good industry, there's great demand for clean water, and so water treatment services
Given its sizable orderbook, coming Q4 results should show continue profits growth.

The Bad:
Poor Management & Poor Corporate disclosures
...go study below areas:-

a) How they "manage away" 115m stock options - all "squander away" at one go
===> I wonder if they had plans NOT to hire any more staffs after April-2004

b) how excutive, non-excutive even independent director - all get allotted the same 3m options each,
--> even Exe Director Mr Zhu (incharge of Sales+Marketing), also got only 3m options
---> among 5 directors cover in Service Agreement, Zhu got lowest salary at HK$30k/mth, the rests all at HK$40k-$50k)

c) The 2 Years Service Agreements ... (Pg 111 of IPO Prospectus)
only commence in 30-Oct2003 and contains a 6-months termination clause
===> but of what use ?

d) still no news on the 3 Letters-of-Intents for some Rmb423 millions business that was last reported on 26Feb2004

The UGLY
Bio-treat business seems to be growing fast, so we got to expect increasing staff headcounts going forward.

Employees in the Company before + around Apr2004, have already been allotted some 10-years worlth of stock options.
Employees joining Company after Apr2004, ===>> NO more stock options left for them !!!!


So Company going to have two class of employees:
==> one class over-loaded with 10-years worlth of stock options,
===> the other class with nonthing !!!
that is UNLESS
1) Company back track and withdrew back 90% of those options granted out in Apr-2004
the ONLY other alternative is
2) do we see a ESOS-2 coming... imagine another 15% ===> at least another 115m options
....and will it last only for another one year only ???


Even without a ESOS-2 soon,
there is still the issue of Stock Option expensing kicking it next year for those 115m options granted out already.

(Post 1334 of 1480)   07/30/2004.16:17:34
Author :
Mephisto
Fun$, ESOS is now out of favour and not viewed favourably by shareholders due to option expensing impacting on bottomline. Performance shares is now the in-thing.

(Post 1335 of 1480)   07/30/2004.16:29:18
Author :
Fundollar
Mep,
both are bad for shareholders

(Post 1336 of 1480)   07/30/2004.16:34:29
Author :
Mephisto
Fun$, there is a big debate over this. But generally, I agree both are not favoured by shareholders.

(Post 1337 of 1480)   07/30/2004.16:57:14
Author :
Old_economy
Fun$, on Bio-treat's ESO, can always count on you to dispense objective comments. ...simply amazing, instead of issuing ESO over 10 years, we have instant gratification .

(Post 1338 of 1480)   08/04/2004.17:55:10
Author :
Larry
Hi Fun$

Know that u analysed SBS Transit. Do u think that at current price it is still worth entering??

(Post 1339 of 1480)   08/04/2004.20:26:01
Author :
Fundollar
Add-Ons:- Hi ! Old-Econ

Larry,
it would depend on each individuals' investment profile (ie. risk appetite, time horizon, investment goals etc.)
===> So you have to make your own judgements depending on your own circumstances.

Personally, I have not chase above $1.41
BUT if there are newer developments (eg. SBS making big spec divs payout OR Oil prices dropping substantially), then my views could change accordingly.
and I'm waiting to see Q2 figures first ....

P/S:-
These days, no one like to give any advice...
unless you first sign the

The Mother of ALL FORMS....

(Post 1340 of 1480)   08/05/2004.08:50:10
Author :
Larry
Ha, ha...the mother of all forms is really a joke!

I also bot SBS at abt $1.40 and is now looking at it again. The only reason I bot was for the special div. But not sure the amt if there is any. Seems like the parent may need the $...

Anyway, thks for ur reply.

(Post 1341 of 1480)   08/05/2004.11:38:56
Author :
Sagger
hi fundollar
yr sti ecw look pretty

(Post 1342 of 1480)   08/05/2004.12:27:23
Author :
Fundollar
sti ecw

san qiong sui siew yee wu lu,
liew yen hua min yu yee chun


For those dun understand my half-bake Hanyu Pinyin, that's
mountain poor, water end, suspect no road,
willow dark flower bright, another one village
8-)

(Post 1343 of 1480)   08/05/2004.12:37:19
Author :
Fundollar
Bull market scale walls of worries... STI up 32pts, now at 1936 !!
note that yesterday(04-Aug), STI performance was despite SingTel going XD for 6.4c

today strength - in part due to courtesy of Jardine group of companies,
which all reported much better interim earnings.

JMH's interim EPS = us$1.23 !!! (around S$2.09 )
(note: even if one-time gains excluded out, it's still a high us$0.55 ) vs last year's EPS of us$0.10 for the full year.

Story being repeated at JSH, Jardine C&C etc..
JSH (interim EPS = us$0.81 or S$1.37),
Jardine C&C (interim EPS = us$0.46c or S$0.78)

For Spore, notwithstanding ghost month ahead, properties sales will see pickup in Q3,
once Pinnacle@Duxton (only 1848 units), is out of the way by end-Aug.


I understand HDB(computer balloting) send out invitations to some 5000 applicants to "go for selection",
the total applicants for Pinnacle was much more than 5000.

Total units in the development was 1848, though actual units available will be lesser --> coz some get reserved for special people.

NB:-
Given the unexpected strong markets, I'm happily collecting back some funds from the markets...
I'm talking about 5%-10% at a time, and NOT about selling to exit market

(Post 1344 of 1480)   08/05/2004.13:10:33
Author :
Sagger
Fun$

u hv great conviction & holding power
sweet isn't it

(Post 1345 of 1480)   08/05/2004.21:22:10
Author :
Katak
Fun $,

What is your analysis of the recent SCS (Spore Comp Svs) Q2 Results ?
Stock Price down 2.5 cts(3.1%) to 78 cts today while STI up 31.85 (1.7%).

Is it a good entry level to accumulate this stock at 78-80 cts?

(Post 1346 of 1480)   08/05/2004.21:40:44
Author :
Jun
Yr $$$ will work harder else where.

(Post 1347 of 1480)   08/05/2004.22:01:50
Author :
Moneytree
haha wat a turn of events

sceptics ?

(Post 1348 of 1480)   08/05/2004.22:11:29
Author :
Alchemist
$3

Bluesteelsan evicted from SI?
Hope he gets reincarnated.

(Post 1349 of 1480)   08/06/2004.11:07:16
Author :
Fundollar
Jun, 3$, Alchemist & Katak

Katak,
must have holding power... it's pretty illiquid
at current level, limited dowsnide, decent div yields (I expect at least 3c, which gave 3.8% yields)
maybe more - if we see more divestments into Q3/Q4.

Notice their PRESS statement:-

Page 3 of 5
Growth Strategy
The strong profitability in Q2 FY2004 shows the Group is on track to report satisfactory profitability for FY2004. The divestment of SCSM and Kshema during the quarter is in line with the Groupís efforts to streamline and align its business operations to focus on its core capabilities in information communication technology.
Going forward, SCS will continue to streamline its businesses and intends to grow both organically and through acquisitions.

In addition, it intends to strengthen its footprint in the region, through joint ventures or alliances with synergistic partners
and expand beyond Singapore by capitalising on its intellectual property.
The Group will continue to develop its core competencies in its vertical domains of healthcare, eGovernment, manufacturing and logistics, and financial services to sharpen its competitive edge in these sectors.

Prospects
IT spending is expected to maintain its momentum this year but the market remains competitive.
The Group has returned to profitability and is confident of remaining profitable for FY2004.

(Post 1350 of 1480)   08/06/2004.11:32:15
Author :
Fundollar
St Computer (SCS) - Post restructurings earnings recovery (current price $0.775 )

Q2 figures was pretty in line with expectations
FY2004 prospective PE look set to plunge to single digit
(I estimate EPS of 10c)

I'm cautiously optimistic that their Q3 & Q4 will continue to show impovements in operating profits
(they just quadruple headcounts at India (Chenai ?) recently

During the last 3 months ending Jun2004:-
o Book NTA rose to $0.83, price is now at discount to NTA (very rare for Tech stk)
o Debts of $41m was eliminated !!, now only about $1m of borrowing left
o Cash+Equiv stood at around $15 or $0.10 per share ==> Company is in Net Cash
0 Last year(FY-2003), despite reporting a $33m loss, company still paid a 3c dividend
===> IMPLYing that we can expect at least a 3c div payout for this year (that's 3.8% yields at current price of $0.78c)

0 Company still got some $80m in retained earnings at Group level ($55m at Company level)
===> that's $0.53c (at group level) and $0.36c per share (Company level), how much of S44 tax credits still around ?
===> if we see further divestments, some of those cash could get distributed (I'm ONLY speculating here)
and future divestments are likely to end in more surplus over bookvalue COZ of that gigantic one-time writedowns in FY2003

BOTTOM-Line
At current price level of around $0.78c,
1. Limited downside risks, Upside will come after weak holders got shaken off
2. Operating business will continue to be profitable
3. More divestments to streamline business can be expected
4. Small share base, only around 154m issue shares in total,
===> Temasek (via Green Dot Capital + KepLand) control 65% or 100.5m of these shares ==> freefloat less than 50m shares

5. Could we see a reverse takeover sometimes into the future ???
will they share the same bed with NCS one day ?
- they fought for the same small IT skills pool in Spore
- go after same gahmen projects in Spore
- no choice, both also shared the same grandfather - ToMaSi !!
- both spends on overlapping R&D overheads (eg. to develop SAP compentency, develop stds+templates for various hardware, software and biz platforms)

""Spore Companies that could merge, to become bigger and more competitive, should do so....""
--> above... not his exact words,
but LKY said something like that in a ChNewAsia interview a year or two back)

NB:- I got vested interests in ST Comp, and not encouraging anyone to follow...

.
.
.
. Below - a BIG Chart on St Computer (hope no computation errors, alert me if anyone detects any)
.


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