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(Post 101 of 15224) 03/07/2003.14:09:13 |
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Seems like there is still a lot of ppl trying to bottomfish even at this times... Likely an indication of lower prices to to come. We are approaching September lows of 1197, will it hold???  |
| (Post 102 of 15224) 03/07/2003.16:51:19 |
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Most losses experienced by investors are because they did not stick to their principles well. Me for one is one of them. If you had stick to your principles well, (e.g no contra, no chasing, etc) you wouldn't have suffered great losses.
Mephisto, me did a very foolish thing today, I had sold some of my holdings i picked up lately at the bottom low today. I wonder will that ever be the bottom I see. I now must respect one person in mind and that is HongKongren. His forecast has come true. |
| (Post 103 of 15224) 03/07/2003.18:13:50 |
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On September 21st 2001, the STI dropped to a low of 1241 after the September 11th event. The next low for the STI is 1082, which was reached on 12 Jan 1998. And finally, the all time 10 year low is 805 on 4th Sept 1998.
Are we heading for total capitulation of the STI? I choose to believe that we will be breaching 1200 soon and your guess is as good as mine on whether it will go down all the way to 1082. However, before you start to worry about whether this is the end of the equity market in Singapore, I strongly urge you to re-assess your criteria in choosing the right stock to put in your money to work (i.e. no contra). For those who have complete belief in the STI as the barometer of the equity market will have to understand the composition of the STI. It is made up of 45 equity stocks, of which the 3 banks take up more than 25% of the value-weighted index. With the collapse of the other STI component stocks to penny status, it is therefore very easy to manipulate the STI index to the advantage of the market operator. In times like this, you will be making a bold step to buy STI component shares. For example, the banks are being sold down collectively by these stock operators. With the banks' seemingly placid attempts to move out of Singapore to diversify their revenue portfolio, it is not rocket science to lose confidence in the banks delivering incremental topline revenue growth for investors. Amidst the doom and gloom, there will be illiquid counters which most investors seemed to have forgotten convieniently that have outperformed the STI. Counters that are worth looking at are Noble Group, Del Monte, Comfort and even Cerebos. These are not sexy companies like Datacraft or CSM. Cerbos for example sell Brand's Essence of Chicken, and not 0.13mm wafers. Yet, these companies are outperforming the STI, some of which in spectacular fashion. I choose to believe that as long as you invest in a company based on valuation and strong free cash flow, you will defintely maintain your principal value of investment, with an attractive dividend yield to go. Valuation investment is a strategy oriented to selecting stocks whose prices are cheap relative to their fundamentals. Selecting value stocks does not necessarily mean that their price behavior has been good. In fact, value stocks usually do not reflect a good price momentum. The reason is simple: when the market favors certain groups or sectors, then their prices go up. The immediate consequence is a progressive deterioration of the price multiples versus the underlying fundamentals. The other stocks and sectors neglected by the investors' community turn undervalued even if their fundamentals are good and become attractive in terms of valuation. The goal of a value-oriented strategy is to buy the value instead of the trend: sooner or later the market will discover the value of those stocks. I have selected some metrics which are also used by authors of best selling investment books to select stocks based on valuation: 1. Price/Earnings: the lower the better. 2. Price/Book Value: the lower the better. 3. Dividend Yield: the higher the better. 4. Price/Sales: the lower the better. 5. Dividend/Earnings: the higher the better. 6. Earnings/Sales: the higher the better. A sound selection among the above-mentioned criteria is paramount. Selection depends on the kind of value the investor is looking for. If a stock is undervalued in terms of its Price/Earnings ratio, there is no guarantee that its Earnings yield is high. If we are looking for high yielding stocks, then we may choose a high Dividend Yield together with a high Dividend/Earnings ratio. If our choice is more oriented towards undervalued equities, then a good combination may be low Price/Earnings ratio, low Price/Book value. If we want to take into consideration the amount of company sales, then we may combine the Price/Sales or the Earnings/Sales ratio together with the Price/Earnings or Price/Book Value. A top down approach may be implemented by filtering out high capitalization stocks, or by selecting certain index members, as well as stocks traded in a certain market or that are part of a selected industry group. As you can see, the decision to invest in companies with attractive valuations is also based on the availability of free cash flow. When companies report their earnings, these earnings are reported on an "accrual" basis according to generally accepted accounting principles. These earnings usually are not based on cash receipts. For example, a company may make a sale in December and not receive payment until January. Similarly, a company may claim a depreciation expense for production equipment, but they didn't actually have to pay out any cash for this expense. They do, however, have to make new investments in order to remain competitive, but these investments are often not completely reflected in the reported earnings. It is quite possible for a company to report positive earnings while experiencing negative cash flows. Growing companies can experience this phenomenon, especially when they need to reinvest much of their earnings in the business in order to maintain and increase growth rates such as CSM. This free cash flow figure is considered to be excess cash flow that the company can use as it deems most beneficial. With strong free cash flow, debt can be retired, new products developed, stock can be repurchased, and dividend payments can be increased. Excess cash flow also makes a company a more attractive takeover target, which may be good news for all investors. So, perhaps it is time to reassess your stock selection criteria and start making money from the stock market the traditional way. Once the uncertainties are over, perhaps you can nibble at high beta stocks for cheap thrill. As for me, I'm just looking for a way to beat the POSB savings rates.  |
| (Post 104 of 15224) 03/07/2003.18:37:39 |
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The record low of 805 was brought about by the currency crisis.Current market uncertainties are caused by the imminent war on Iraq, terrorism and the growth in the US economy.US is putting alot of pressure on Iraq to get rid of Saddam. Russia, France Germany and China are against US declaring war on Iraq.US may at last resort unilaterally bomb Iraq missile sites and installations. The sooner this issue is resolved the better for the world economy.Bush couldn't care a dame about the economy but has personal ego to get rid of Saddam at all cost.Terrorism will stop if US stops it's arrogrant, however should terrorism strike they can retaliate.Bush has committed a hugh sum of money to drive the economy. |
| (Post 105 of 15224) 03/08/2003.03:15:01 |
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Singapore Strategy
Underweight Deperately Seeking Direction Is It Time Yet To Get Feet Wet? The answer in short and in two words, is Yes, and selectively. We reflect our selectivity by adjusting our top stock preferences and our Singapore model portfolio. Our most significant overweight positions versus the benchmark are in order: Comfort, GE Holdings, OCBC, SGX and Venture. Results Season Downgrades Are In The Price Earnings shocks have been absorbed, with consensus earnings for FY03 having been revised downwards. Through the last two weeks we believe market EPS has moved downwards by aggregate 4.6% from post-results downgrades, all driven by revisions to the three banks' forecasts. As support for a fundamental floor to share prices, we would point to the market risk premium (incorporating now more realistic and lower earnings expectations for FY03) which is equal to the levels attained in the depths of the Asian crisis in 1998. Geopolitical issues such as the Middle East conflict have pushed the risk premium to these exceptional levels, and mild amelioration of these macro, non-specific risks should cause negative sentiment to reverse and for prices to snap back. Our revised model portfolio is presented below. We have trimmed our UOB holdings to reflect our bank analyst Craig Turton's downgrade on the stock (from Overweight to Neutral), using some of the funds to introduce GE Holdings to the portfolio. Whilst Craig has all three banks on Neutral ratings at the moment, I differ from his preferences by weighting them in order OCBC, DBS and then UOB. Recent relative performance between DBS and UOB have guided my preference in this respect, although we will take a trading orientation towards the relative bank holdings. |
| (Post 106 of 15224) 03/08/2003.06:04:31 |
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The bears had finally managed to push the index below 1,250. So the question now is whether:
1. The market has come down to an attractive level and we should buy because of the better valuation? or 2. The index has broken all the supports so we should sell because there may be worst thing to come? or 3. It is not conclusive as to which direction the market may go from here so we should wait and see for further evidence? Unfortunately, there is no one perfect answer. How one will answer this question will depend mainly on who he/she is and how much is his/her appetite for risk!
Previous pix |
| (Post 107 of 15224) 03/08/2003.06:47:34 |
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Thanks for your posting Spurs which was highlighted to me. I have since highlighted it to everyone else. I am looking at the STI ETFs as a way to ride the STI. I notice yesterday that the STI ETF closed lower than its valuation suggesting that there is a lot of pessimism on the direction of the STI. I am still looking at and around the 1100 level before I make my first entry. It is interesting to note that for the Sept 11 episode, the index fell for another 3 days before making the U turn. |
| (Post 108 of 15224) 03/08/2003.06:53:52 |
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OChartist, just saw your posting and have it highlighted.
Am hoping that more will take the poll on the direction of the STI which we have just created here. |
| (Post 109 of 15224) 03/08/2003.08:10:59 |
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Spurs, excellent article. Based on your criteria, what stocks do you recommend? Thanks. |
| (Post 110 of 15224) 03/08/2003.10:36:01 |
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Oldman, after reading Spurs posting, I am wondering whether SI can provide information on shares sorted based on criteria like those Spurs mentioned to pick good and cheap stocks. I think some financial portals in US (e.g. MSN Money) provide such information as the top 10 stocks in terms of dividend yield, top 10 value stocks in terms of lowest P/NTA or P/E, or one of more combinations of these. Are these available? Thanks.  |
| (Post 111 of 15224) 03/08/2003.10:39:00 |
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Spurs, I think you will make a good stock market analyst. YOu should try to get a job at one of the stock broking firms. Submit your highlighted postings to them as part of your CV. |
| (Post 112 of 15224) 03/08/2003.10:48:45 |
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The EQ and IQ of Stock Investing
Skyfox, discipline and sticking to principles, much like sticking to new year resolutions, are not things that you can acquire or behaviour you can change overnight. Many human beings succumb to their follies and foibles over and over again although they know they have been foolish with hindsight. Fear, greed and the gambling instinct afflict many a stock player. He who conquers these conquers the market. Why I can be calm when I buy a share and see price dropping? Because the moment I buy, I am prepared to lose all without losing sleep. Of course, I don't anyhow buy or buy on impulse. Nor do I cut loss mechanically like traders unless there are fundamental reasons to sell at a loss. In stock investing, managing your emotions (fear, greed, gambling instinct) is as important as making good decisions on what stock you buy and when to buy just like EQ is as important as IQ. TA and FA are the IQ aspects while managing your emotion/expectation is the EQ aspect of stock investing. |
| (Post 113 of 15224) 03/08/2003.11:07:35 |
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Thanks Mephisto,
Always nice talking to you. |
| (Post 114 of 15224) 03/08/2003.11:14:11 |
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Skyfox, have a nice day. |
| (Post 115 of 15224) 03/08/2003.11:14:27 |
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my strategy...30% contra, 70% investment
but my contra gain always offset by my contra loss due to the fact that I lack of determination ..(NO EQ lor) |
| (Post 116 of 15224) 03/08/2003.11:19:05 |
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Why Gains tend to Offset Loss in Contra Trading
Asw308, the phenomenum of your contra gain always offsetting your contra loss is the phenomenum of 50:50 chance of head or tail when you toss a coin. The outcome of playing contra is much like the outcome of tossing an unloaded coin. The chance of winning and lossing is 50:50 over the long haul but in a downtrending market, the chance of losing becomes much higher. |
| (Post 117 of 15224) 03/08/2003.11:21:15 |
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 but I treat any gain / loss as a lesson so as to improve in the long run
btw, I have my first lesson on looking chart last Sat. |
| (Post 118 of 15224) 03/08/2003.11:22:30 |
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HongKongRen, I think you can appear now. Your forecast has come true. This guy is a genius. His forecast of time and index is all correct. Let's put it in another way, maybe he is not a genius but I am a fool. The gains that I have made recently has made me to be too proud, arrogant and blinded which result in wrong investing.
Mephisto, you too have a nice day. |
| (Post 119 of 15224) 03/08/2003.12:16:37 |
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Mephisto, these are already available in SI. If you are using the SI Station, do click on Find at the top of the SI Station and you will see a whole list. Also, for every stock, you will find a link called Company Snapshot which will list ratios like PER, ROE, Current Ratio and Debt to Equity. We will be consolidating all these in the weeks ahead to make searches a lot easier. Cannot say too much more as I really like to give our competitors a surprise.  |
| (Post 120 of 15224) 03/08/2003.12:51:06 |
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I can see quite a bit of pains on the faces of some in the current onslaught of STI. So where is all the SMART MONEY ?
* give you one hint, since mid 2001 until now, i have not held a stock longer than T+5. * let me give you another hint, when the market turn, there are still plenty of chances for you to buy since it had been bashed so badly. * give you another hint, back in the 97/98 crisis, i did not buy when the index slide from 2000 to 1500, then to 1000, then to 800 ... i bought at 900 (not the T+5 type) ... no prize for you if you guess right which 900 ! |
| (Post 121 of 15224) 03/08/2003.13:13:40 |
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if you are the cow come home investor, let's us take 1 step back, go back to the 20,000 ft level, spot trends and then place broad level bets. if you look at the past, there is always a trigger for equity boom times ...
* in the 1970's, it is the industrialization * in the 1980's, it is the domestic factors (eg, Asia - property prices, ...) * in the 1990's, it is the internet. * in the 2000's, what do you think it will be ? anyone interested to find out ? |
| (Post 122 of 15224) 03/08/2003.13:25:46 |
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Oldman, I know the link for Company snapshots but what I am suggesting is for the SI engine to sort the rank the companies. Where can I get this ranking information? Say, ranking in term of dividend yield? I have yet to use the SI Station. HOw to us it? Looks like I am not getting the bang out of my gold membership. hehe. Thanks for your help.
P/S: Ok, found SI Station and using it the first time. Hehe. |
| (Post 123 of 15224) 03/08/2003.13:26:22 |
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YK, in the 2000's, it is the excesses of the internet era. |
| (Post 124 of 15224) 03/08/2003.14:35:38 |
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Mephisto,
I can't get a job now, let alone a analyst.  They need a CFA to be one. Remember our brief discussion on CFA and your Monte Carlo simulation stuff last year? 
As for stock picks, I selected 4 illiquid stocks: Noble Group, Del Monte, Cerebos and Comfort. I intend to do on a FA on a listed company a week and post the findings on my Investment Tome homepage.
I'm trying to do it the old-fasioned way. Remember, I'm looking for a way to beat POSB savings rates. |
| (Post 125 of 15224) 03/08/2003.16:12:55 |
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Why Mephisto is a guy.
===================== Here is something interesting. Real or other name: Mephistopheles, Lucifer, Beelzebub, the Devil Height:6 ' (but he can change his size at will) Weight: 310 lbs First apparence: Silver Surfer (volume one) # 3 (October 1968) Arch - enemies: Silver Surfer, Thor Mephisto is the physical manifestation of ultimate evil , the malefic master of the dimension that many refer to as Hell . He thrives on greed and hates , and devotes his immortal existence to tricking unwitting humans into giving up their souls for eternity to his fiery domain . Altrough he has awesome supernatural powers , he prefers to lures mortal to their doom by tempting them with those things wich they desire most . When you play his game , you bet your life . |
| (Post 126 of 15224) 03/08/2003.16:24:23 |
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Mephisto, the other way is to click on Find in the SI homepage and from the Matrix page, just click on any of the headers there and the entire 500 odd stocks will be sorted out in terms of historical PE, dividends, etc. These are sorted out on the fly and hence, if the share price changes, some of these rankings will changed as well. Yes, there is actually quite a bit in SI Gold. |
| (Post 127 of 15224) 03/09/2003.14:12:31 |
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Reborn, thanks for the excel file. Is it possible to import TA indicators into the file and run a sort of stocks with lowest P/E, highest dividend yield, lowest P/NTA, and lowest RSI? |
| (Post 128 of 15224) 03/09/2003.14:12:57 |
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Skyfox, since when you became Mephisto's PR manager? keke |
| (Post 129 of 15224) 03/09/2003.14:15:04 |
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Spurs, sorry to hear that. Don't despair and keep trying. I am sure you will find a job that suits your talent soon. In SI, you have earned the respects of many with your good reasonings on stock investing ahd your humility. Cheers. |
| (Post 130 of 15224) 03/10/2003.00:48:16 |
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Hi Mephisto,
No way I can do tat, cos SI doesn't provide such functions. The excel file infos is all I can extract from what SI has provided |
| (Post 131 of 15224) 03/10/2003.09:31:51 |
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Thanks to a kind soul who informed us that our labelling of the poll is not right. Please note that the most votes are on 1150-1199 and not 1150-1159 as stated in our poll. Unfortunately, we are not able to correct this as this poll feature does not allow us to amend after it has been published. We will be developing another poll software shortly which will give us more flexibility.
In the meantime, for those who have not voted, please considering doing so. Do note that the system only allows one vote per user but users can change their vote anytime. |
| (Post 132 of 15224) 03/10/2003.10:03:26 |
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I wonder if this kind soul is attached to a warm body at the moment |
| (Post 133 of 15224) 03/10/2003.10:19:02 |
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Ok lah. The kind soul has to be Zombie. |
| (Post 134 of 15224) 03/10/2003.10:31:25 |
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| (Post 135 of 15224) 03/10/2003.11:07:49 |
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Blackhawk down... |
| (Post 136 of 15224) 03/10/2003.11:08:05 |
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| (Post 137 of 15224) 03/10/2003.11:21:50 |
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Market is going to be very quiet with downward bias this week before the 17 Mar deadline US has issued to Iraq to disarm. Contra players will likely suffer losses. |
| (Post 138 of 15224) 03/10/2003.11:40:36 |
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zzzz...can take half day off...no action at all |
| (Post 139 of 15224) 03/10/2003.11:47:34 |
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Everybody is waiting for the world to come to an end. |
| (Post 140 of 15224) 03/10/2003.11:52:04 |
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| (Post 141 of 15224) 03/11/2003.09:10:24 |
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Reproduced with permission from Kelive
11 Mar 8:56AM : Food Stocks to Offer Solace US Market Wrap - Dow 7568.18 -171.85pts (-2.22%), Nasdaq 1278.37 -26.92pts (-2.06%) US markets suffered a broad-based sell-off on geopolitical factors and renewed concerns on the economy. Fears about a war with Iraq and North Korea's test firing of another missile into the Sea of Japan weighed on sentiment. In addition, a weak jobs data last week drove some economists to cut the US GDP growth forecast for 1H03. All the 30 Dow components fell into the red. Even an upgrade of DuPont failed to lift the stock, which eased 1.5%. Airline stocks were badly hit on worries of the impending war's impact on travel and oil prices. The Amex Airline Index fell 4.6%. On the tech front, Microsoft fell 2.3%, IBM corrected 2.82%, and Intel inched lower by 0.7% while Cisco fell 1.7%. The wireless sector got a dose of good news after Qualcomm raised its phone chip shipment forecast to from 27mil to 28mil, citing a "steady progress" in global 3rd generation CDMA network deployments. But given the bearish sentiments, the stock still fell 2.7%. Tonight, January's wholesale inventory & sales figures (consensus estimates 0.2%) will be released. Day in Review (STI last closed 1213.82) The local market should open the day weaker; weighed by overnight losses on Wall Street. While STI managed a minor rebound yesterday morning, a lack of follow through on the back of geopolitical worries and short-term shares overhang resulted in it ending lower. Possible margin calls weigh down on prices further. Technically, the STI remains oversold both in the short and mid term. Yet, unless the broad market is able to steady itself, prices could continue to drift lower, as trades get rolled down. Food stocks and those that offer good dividend yields could provide some shelter, as the market shies away from the geopolitical uncertainty. In the News Chartered reiterated its Q1 guidance. Revenue is expected to be lower by 5~10% sequentially with utilization in the low 40s. Net loss is expected to come in at $71~74mil, with a loss/ADS of 28~30cts. Due to the weak market sentiments, immediate resistance is now at 0.68. Stocks to Watch SIA (9.4) - Prices have been marking lower intra-day highs in recent sessions, on the back of geopolitical concerns & rising oil prices. Immediate resistance is at 9.5. If 9.35 fails, a test of 9~9.1 is possible. Food stocks could provide some shelter. United Food (0.375) has immediate technical support at 0.36~0.365, that could stabilize the falls. Currently, strong resistance is not noted until closer to 0.40. However, failure of 0.36 suggests further weakness. note: Brokers' reports are reproduced with the permission from the various broking companies. ShareInvestor does not endorse or edit any of these reports. |
| (Post 142 of 15224) 03/12/2003.10:44:33 |
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Reproduced with permission from Kelive
12 Mar 8:53AM : Index to Attempt a Sideway Swing... US Market Wrap - Dow 7524.06 -44.12pts (-0.58%), Nasdaq 1271.47 -6.9pts (-0.54%) US markets gave up early gains to end negative, as a delay of the U.N. vote on the new resolution on Iraq provided investors only an intra-day respite from the selling spree. Airline stocks took another hit after Delta Air warned that cash flow for its March quarter would be negative. Delta Air plunged 22% while the Amex Airline tumbled 9.9%. Other Dow movers included AT&T (down 4.7%), JP Morgan (down 3.2%) and GM (down 2.5%). On the tech front, Microsoft was lower by 0.69%, IBM down by 0.46% and Cisco nearly flat. Tonight, January's trade gap (consensus estimates US$44.2bil) will be released. After the bell: Programmable chipmaker Altera upped its Q1 revenue target to reflect 4% sequential growth compared with a previous range of flat to 2% growth. Day in Review (STI last closed 1216.11) Stocks could open the day marginally down but attempt to stabilize, as the STI attempts a sideways movement from 1206~1238 in the days/week ahead. Immediate support is at 1212. Levels within are 1212 and 1222/26. However, failure of 1205 suggests a probe of 1190~1192. Regional markets are currently mixed. Australia's All-Ords is currently down 0.64%, KOSPI lower by less than 1.3% but the Nikkei is higher by 0.7%. US futures are marginally higher following Altera's after hour's announcement. The S&P futures is marginally higher by 0.2pts while Nasdaq futures up 1pt. Stocks to Watch CityDev (3.40) - Stock may have found immediate support at 3.34~3.36. Pullbacks for now should be limited there. If 3.42 clears, look for 3.52. However, failure of 3.32 suggests short-term weakness. News Highlights: Cycle & Carriage has purchased another 10.9m shares of PT Astra Int'l Tbk at approximately IDR2,300 per share from open market on 10th march 2003, this has effectively increased CCL's stake in Astra from 34.53% to 34.80%. Leong Hin reported Fy02 results with earnings turning around from a net loss of S$4.0m in Fy01 to a net profit of S$0.05m in Fy02. This was backed by a 9% revenue improvement to S$20.1m, due mainly to improved performances at the Piling and Geotechnic Contracts Division and the Sale of Machinery Divisions. Management expects continued improvement in the group's performance for Fy03. (EPS: 0.04cts, NTA: 19.42cts) Hor Kew's wholly owned subsidiary Hor Kew Private Ltd has secured a construction contract worth S$77.4m from HDB. This contract is expected to be completed by Dec 2004, and will positively contribute group's result for Fy03 and Fy04. This latest addition to the orderbook is approximately 1x Fy02 sales turnover. Hong Leong Finance Fy02 result: Interest on loans increased by 61.3% to S$155.7m, net profit improved by 7.4% to S$84.5m. The results were arrived at after making additional allowances for loans and advances amounting to $44.2m Viz. S$8.6m for Fy01. Group declared final dividend of 9.36cts per share, translating into a dividend yield of 5.7%. (EPS: 19.64cts, NTA: S$2.67). At the close of the IPO Application List at noon on 10th March 2003, Axis Systems Holdings' offer shares of 8.6m was approximately 9.8x subscribed, the total new shares of 42.9m was about 2.8x subscribed. Axis will commence trading today. Serial Systems Ltd Fy02 results: revenue jumped by 113% to S$165.5m. However, group incurred a net loss of S$9.9m compared to the net profit of S$0.3m in Fy01, which is mainly contributed to the lower gross margins from all businesses, provisions for doubtful debts and inventories, as well as the write-off of assets. Group declared a final dividend of 0.1cts per share, which translated into a dividend yield of 0.7%. (LPS: 3.26cts, NTA: 25.85cts). note: Brokers' reports are reproduced with the permission from the various broking companies. ShareInvestor does not endorse or edit any of these reports. |
| (Post 143 of 15224) 03/13/2003.08:12:34 |
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Someone sent me this interesting link on economists and the stock index....
Link. |
| (Post 144 of 15224) 03/13/2003.09:45:56 |
| Author : |
Reproduced with permission from Kelive
13 Mar 8:55AM : UN May Take Vote on Iraq Tonight... US Market Wrap - Dow 7552.07 +28.01pts (+0.37%), Nasdaq 1279.24 +7.77pts (+0.61%) US markets reversed early losses to end positive, helped by short covering as the session drew to a close. Investors looked to square positions ahead of an expected U.N. vote on a new Iraq resolution as early as Thursday. Speculation mounted that the U.S. may have put together 8 of the 9 votes needed to pass the new resolution. Still, losers beat gainers by a ratio of 19:14 on the broad market. Microsoft was higher by 2.6%, GM up 2.4% and Intel higher by 2.2%. Ford & Delta Airlines gained more than 7% & 11% respectively after receiving upgrades. But AOL fell 4% amid news that the federal investigation into the company's revenue accounting had been broadened. Networking stocks had a weak session, following downgrades on Lucent (-4.4%) & Nortel (-0.5%) amid concerns over capital expenditures in the wireless industry. Cisco fell 2.9% in tandem. Tonight, initial claims (consensus estimates 418K) and February's retail sales (consensus estimates 0.5% fall) will be released. After the bell: Communications software developer Comverse Technology reported a Q4 loss of 16cts/share, 3cts better than market expectations CMGI reported a 2Q loss of 47cts/share and expects a flat to US$4mil loss for 3Q. International Paper expects Q1 earnings to come in at 12cts/share, below the expected 20cts/share Tyco expects earnings to be lower by 9cts/share to 11cts/share for the quarter ending March 31st due to a charge of US$265~325mil. Day in Review (STI last closed 1233.68) Trading in the local bourse could adopt a more mixed tone, following gains made yesterday and ahead of a possible UN vote on a new Iraq resolution as early as today. STI's upside for the current session could be limited at 1238. Intra-day support is at 1226 and 1220~1222. Regional markets are currently flat to marginally lower. The Nikkei is currently marginally higher by 0.1%, All-Ords & KOSPI marginally lower by 0.19% and 0.39% respectively. US futures are trekking higher, with the S&P futures higher by 1.1pts and the Nasdaq futures up 1.5pts. In the News DMX (0.245) reported a 333% increase in net profit to US$3.9mil for FY02. EPS is at US$1.93. No dividend was declared. Going ahead, the company said the success of its regional expansion, which it feels positive about, depended on political & social complications as well. The company also said it is likely to incur additional expenditure & may raise additional capital. While the stock could gain on the back of its FY02 results, technically, look for resistance at 0.265 to limit near term upside. note: Brokers' reports are reproduced with the permission from the various broking companies. ShareInvestor does not endorse or edit any of these reports. |
| (Post 145 of 15224) 03/14/2003.10:42:21 |
| Author : |
Reproduced with permission from Kelive
14 Mar 8:59AM : US Markets Surge on Easing of Iraqi Tensions... US Market Wrap - Dow 7821.75 +269.68pts (+3.57%), Nasdaq 1340.77 +61.53pts (+4.8%) US markets surged on heavy volume as anticipation grew that the Iraq situation will be resolved with or without UN approval soon. Reports that negotiations were underway for the surrender of some Iraqi military units gave stocks a further reason to cheer about. Sentiment was also boosted by a better than expected initial jobless claims data, which helped offset a weaker than expected retail sales. Intel, Walt Disney & GM rose 7.1%, 6.7% & 6.4% respectively. Microsoft gained 5.5% while Cisco added 5.8%. Chip stocks had a good session, with the SOX up by 8%. HP, however, ended the day negative but still managed to recoup its 8.9% fall to end the day 3.7% lower after the company reclassified of some of its cash flow from operations, as cash flow from investing activities. After the bell: Adobe Systems reported Q1 earnings of 25cts/share, 3cts better than expected. Day in Review (STI last closed 1231.77) The local bourse should build upon its rally that started 2 days ago on the back of the overnight surge on Wall Street. Look for the STI to test the 1252~1253 level. If index is able to clear this level, look for a test of 1268~1274 in the days ahead. Stocks that had been sold or shorted down in recent weeks due to geopolitical concerns should gain, and this included banks, techs & selected property counters. Stocks to Watch DBS (8.85) - Stock could rise to test the 9.25 level (15-day moving average). Next resistance 9.45. Expect to see gains in the other OCBC & UOB as well. Chip stocks could gain, following the overnight surge in the SOX: Chartered (0.675) - Look for a test of 0.70~0.705. It needs to clear 0.705 to head towards 0.73. ST Assembly (1.13) - Targeted level is 1.21 in sessions. Pacific Century (0.205) - If the immediate resistance at 0.215 is taken out, look for prices to head towards 0.24 in coming days. News Highlights ... Accord Customer Care Solutions' IPO issue of 137m shares @ $0.27 apiece was 1.3x subscribe. The retail tranche of 13.7m shares was 3.9x subscribed. Accord provides support services for mobile handsets and other high-tech consumer devices. The IPO will start trading today. Pertama Holdings' net profits almost tripled to $2.8m following a 24% growth in Group revenue and broad-based cost-cutting measures. Sales for the first six months to Dec 2002 was $183.3m viz 148.5m. Despite delicate business sentiment in Singapore, Pertama expects to remain profitable in the second half of the current financial year. Koda reported confirmed orders of approximately $5m at the International Furniture Fair Singapore 2003. This is almost double the amount of confirmed orders secured at last year's event. The Company expects additional follow-through sales from contacts established during the fair. FHTK Holdings sunk into the red with a net loss of $2m in the 6 months ended Dec 2002, reversing a net profit of $92.4m in the year earlier. The loss was mainly due to an absence of exceptional gains and forex losses of $1.2m. Sales fell to $39m from $49m. note: Brokers' reports are reproduced with the permission from the various broking companies. ShareInvestor does not endorse or edit any of these reports. |
| (Post 146 of 15224) 03/14/2003.13:51:07 |
| Author : |
er...war postponed from march 18 to april 18 aaah... |
| (Post 147 of 15224) 03/15/2003.06:44:49 |
| Author : |
STI - Market managed to recover part of the losses gathered in the previous week. However, whether the rise can be sustained remained to be seen.
We must really thank those brave and adventurous souls who are out there catching the falling knife. I believe they will one day be handsomely rewarded for shouldering the risk during this treacherous time.
Previous pix |
| (Post 148 of 15224) 03/15/2003.08:52:50 |
| Author : |
Ochartist, some are knife catchers while others are knifes jugglers. |
| (Post 149 of 15224) 03/15/2003.08:57:09 |
| Author : |
Come MOnday, STI poised for a correction to 1240 level. This is based on my TA (tikam analysis). |
| (Post 150 of 15224) 03/15/2003.09:04:40 |
| Author : |
Mep, so early wake up already... it's Saturday you know. |
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