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(Post 201 of 15224)   03/21/2003.09:31:03
Author :
Old_economy
Mep,

By Mephisto On Monday, 17 Mar 2003 09:38am
[Gold User] Posting #58221
Once war breaks out, expect STI to dive below 1200.

The market has a funny way of teaching us humility. It behaved the way it did over the past days because far too many people have been expecting a repeat of the past. History does not always repeat

(Post 202 of 15224)   03/21/2003.09:36:43
Author :
Mephisto
Old_economy, as the saying goes, expect the unexpected. Luckily I had built my war time portfolio and benefitted from in in the pre-war rally.

(Post 203 of 15224)   03/21/2003.09:43:00
Author :
Pro
Mep, you said when war starts ST index would drop to 1200. How wrong can you be. You are out by more than a mile.You must have run on monday 17/3 and cut loss.

(Post 204 of 15224)   03/21/2003.09:45:15
Author :
Mephisto
Pro, I was very wrong indeed for now. But I did reap substantial gains from my war time portfolio. Hope you not too disappointed to hear that. You cut your CSM too late. If you had listened to me when I initiated the SCI-CSM horse race, you would have reaped more than 20% gain by now. Instead you insisted that by end Mar, CSM would lead SCI in the race way ahead.

(Post 205 of 15224)   03/21/2003.09:48:53
Author :
Skyfox
Now it is only 9.50am. Still got until 5pm to see whether any correction takes place!

(Post 206 of 15224)   03/21/2003.09:50:17
Author :
Skyfox
Mephisto, want to short or not? Maybe can short creative, want or not, run up too fast for this counter already.

(Post 207 of 15224)   03/21/2003.09:54:10
Author :
Mephisto
SKyfox, I do not short although I do see some short candidates. Scarli Saddam surrenders, all shortists lose their pants.

(Post 208 of 15224)   03/21/2003.09:55:39
Author :
Pro
Frankly i am not bothered because folks who made good money do not brag about it.It's true i loss some money in CSM but i am not perturb by it .

(Post 209 of 15224)   03/21/2003.09:56:59
Author :
Skyfox
Mephisto, I doubt Saddam will surrender, he is as stubborn as me.

(Post 210 of 15224)   03/21/2003.09:58:14
Author :
Mephisto
Skyfox, I mean surrender to Allah.

(Post 211 of 15224)   03/21/2003.10:03:24
Author :
Ashley88
deleted (after clarification).

(Post 212 of 15224)   03/21/2003.10:04:45
Author :
Mephisto
Ah Pro, your stubbornness in refusing to accept that CSM is a hopeless company has caused you to cut at record low price. I cut CSM at 7.00 after buying at 9.00 and did not look back since. I have recovered my losses in CSM many times over ever since. Many who stuck with you on your conviction in CSM were sorely disappointed. You disappointed them thoroughly.

(Post 213 of 15224)   03/21/2003.10:04:51
Author :
Skyfox
Ashley, I think you see wrongly. Please see again.

(Post 214 of 15224)   03/21/2003.10:05:12
Author :
Mephisto
Ashley, it's not an insinuation, It's an affront.

(Post 215 of 15224)   03/21/2003.10:07:24
Author :
Ashley88
Skyfox, clarification OK with me!

(Post 216 of 15224)   03/21/2003.10:16:48
Author :
Pro
Mep, folks act on their own conviction. As for me if management does not announce about needing more fund I would have hold own to my share.How you recover from CSM is a 'wonder'.Just like your conviction that ST would drop to 1200 when it fell on Monday.You acted on your conviction.As far as CSM is concern it is water under the bridge and so I move on without looking back.

(Post 217 of 15224)   03/21/2003.10:19:39
Author :
Skyfox
Pro, got a 4D tip for you. When war ends in the coming months. Buy the date when it started. This is a golden number.

(Post 218 of 15224)   03/21/2003.10:23:42
Author :
Ykayboon
anyone took heed ???

By Ykayboon On Thursday, 20 Mar 2003 04:17pm
[ Jade User ] Posting #174 (Viewing #174 of 217 Total) [ Bookmark ] [ Reply ]

value done today should cross the half a billion dollar mark today, led by banks and SPH. you can only keep your finger crossed that this relief rally has spillover effect to the second liner.
the blue chips has driven STI up by over 100 points in the past 3 sessions. I am calling that the blue chips to take a breather after today and the laggards will play catch up starting tomorrow.


Index Value : 1314.92

(Post 219 of 15224)   03/21/2003.10:31:29
Author :
Mephisto
DJ MARKET TALK/SG: Weakness Ahead For STI - OCBC
Source : Dow Jones 21/03/2003 10:17
[Dow Jones] STI's recent rise unlikely to continue, says OCBC's Chew Sutat. Says STI has scope to fall to 1280 in coming days as market needs strong economic catalysts to buy further. Adds U.S economic data looks patchy and too early to say whether higher Singapore exports in February indicative of domestic economic recovery. STI down 0.3% at 1303.88 after rising over 5% this week. (ANU)

(Post 220 of 15224)   03/21/2003.10:44:45
Author :
Skyfox
Looks like a quiet day today. I also go gai gai already.

(Post 221 of 15224)   03/21/2003.10:50:49
Author :
Asw308
i choose to zzz.......

(Post 222 of 15224)   03/21/2003.10:55:23
Author :
Mephisto
DJ MARKET TALK/SG: Stocks Moving Sideways; Assessing War
Source : Dow Jones 21/03/2003 10:49
[Dow Jones] Investors sitting tight, assessing impact of war in Iraq; STI almost flat at 1307. "Some now hold view that the war could last one month or more, with the equity markets having more downside risk than upside in the interim," says NetResearch. Past week's rally has already priced in quick end to Iraq war but it remains to be seen if this carried out. War risks aside, investors have to focus on fundamentals, like weak economy and poor corporate earnings. (EYG)

(Post 223 of 15224)   03/21/2003.11:11:56
Author :
Asw308
"A U.S. Marine CH-46 helicopter has crashed in Kuwait, killing all 16 people aboard, the first coalition fatalities of Operation Iraqi Freedom, Pentagon officials said late Thursday." Source : CNN

(Post 224 of 15224)   03/21/2003.11:20:20
Author :
Mephisto
Asw308, may God bless their souls.

(Post 225 of 15224)   03/21/2003.11:21:27
Author :
Asw308

(Post 226 of 15224)   03/21/2003.12:09:05
Author :
Shortist2002
According to my sources, fund managers are still trying to buy the blue chips on the dip for fear of a more sustained war rally which would cause those still with cash under-perform their peers.

Most fund managers are not absolute-return but relative-return players. It is their action that causes market momentum in the large cap stocks.

As for penny stocks, house traders are the main momentum creators.

(Post 227 of 15224)   03/21/2003.17:18:36
Author :
Shortist2002
The charts of blue chips still look ok but be careful about the penny stocks.

Fund managers have been trying to get back into the blue chips since Tuesday. Previous gap at 1343-1353 beckons. We are probably not far away from the 5th wave of this mini rally. Watch for any signs of decreasing volume and the formation of red candle stick at the top.

For penny stocks, some distribution signals detected for yesterday.

(Post 228 of 15224)   03/21/2003.17:39:56
Author :
Jimmyboy88
i want to buy and carry position over weekend but danger..looks like any time can be red alert..

(Post 229 of 15224)   03/21/2003.18:53:32
Author :
Godloveyouandme
Can go up some more.

(Post 230 of 15224)   03/21/2003.19:53:38
Author :
Mephisto
Skyfox, sold shares only to see them shoot up after selling? It always happen that way.

(Post 231 of 15224)   03/21/2003.20:12:40
Author :
Skyfox
Mephisto, you did say there will be a correction too in the first place. Guess you are equally wrong, but perhaps you are right in buying back today I guess.

(Post 232 of 15224)   03/21/2003.20:15:59
Author :
Hkinvestor
Mephisto....same here! Bought CapLand at 1.13 3 weeks ago....sat thru hell and sold yesterday at 1.13. Now shark!!! Price shoot to...1.19!

Chartwise, CapLand seems overbought now!

Wondering whether to chase!!

(Post 233 of 15224)   03/22/2003.00:17:53
Author :
Macy
HK investor for Hong Kong investor??

Anyway i believe that the STI or for that matter global markets should do an about face. And we should see further rallies, at least i hope. If can ride thru the storm best to buy long and hold. 3 months or so i hope. And i might continue buying on weakness... which ones?? hmm uptoyou lar do your own homework lor i guess. But properties are a good starter as with banks and blue chips. And then if its sustains look out for second liners and laggards and so on. And if its sustainable ...

Another round of buying. I am sure funds are co ing in especially when liquidity is ample and rates are low ..... But expect large volatility and watch Iraq carefully for bad news and how the market is reacting to it.

(Post 234 of 15224)   03/22/2003.06:23:52
Author :
Ochartist
STI (Daily) - A trend cannot be established in a day. Neither can it be confirmed within a week. As long as the lows do not see new low and the highs keep gaining new ground, we can still maintain our hope of a major turn-around in the STI.

The best confirmation of a continuing bull-trend is when the index can stay convincingly above the 50-day moving average (currently at about 1,302).

I was deceived by a false rally in December. However this is the price one needs to pay if he intends to look for sign of reversal well before a bottom can be firmly established. Let's hope that I will not be disappointed this time round.

Previous pix

(Post 235 of 15224)   03/22/2003.06:28:05
Author :
Ochartist
Dow (Weekly) - Have we seen the worst in the Dow? Will the bear trend be reversed? Will Wall Street rally another 20% from here?. . .?

The story may not be complete without having to touch on my tale of the 2 cities. Like what I have repeated several times, I may be optimistic on the local market but I am bearish on the Dow.

The Dow is currently just flirting with the neckline of a massive, multi-year Head-&-shoulder formation bouncing about within a familiar range between 7,500 and 9,000. A reversal can only be assured if the Dow can clear the resistance between its current level and 9,000. On the other hand, things will be quite bad should the necline at 7,500 be broken.

If you ask me, I would put the odd at 9 to 1 favouring the later.

Shown below is a mid-range shot, somewhere in between a close-up and a panoramic.

(Post 236 of 15224)   03/22/2003.07:30:03
Author :
Ochartist
Hi Shortist2002,

The train is leaving the station again yeah??

(Post 237 of 15224)   03/22/2003.10:02:40
Author :
Mephisto
Ochartist, in my view, the huge rally in US that we see so far is the result of fear factor. With so much money sidelined before the war was certain, many are now rushing into the market fearing that if they do not, they might miss the super-TGV train departing for the moon.

(Post 238 of 15224)   03/22/2003.12:07:45
Author :
Pro
Mep, it makes no sense for the DJ to move up by 235 points because of 'fear factor'. What fear are you talking? Fear of putting money in the bank, etc.It is not fear but basic logic that you can't get good returns from bond, fixed deposit etc.Equities are still the best returns.ST index is driven by DJ and I believe ST index should be able to move up by 40% from 1200.With the small volume generated blue chips are the best bet.

(Post 239 of 15224)   03/23/2003.19:05:13
Author :
Mephisto
Never be too bullish. The market is pricing in quick win by US. WHile US will definitely win the war, there is no guarantee that it will not be dragged on. If Baghdad does not fall in a week or two, the US could make a U turn when signs of a prolonged war emerged. Of course, US can flatten Baghdad overnight if she wants to with her fire power but the price of doing this will be unacceptable with thousands of civilians dead. Ultimately, when the war is over, we will know whether US' claim that Iraq had WMD is substantiated. If it is ultimately revealed that no WMD exits in Iraq, then the legitimacy of this war will be called into question and the Bush administration would fall. STI could hit as high as 1400 riding on the strong rally but all the gains can quickly evaporate if things turn out ugly. The real test will come when the US troops reaches Baghdad. It remains to be seen how strong the resistance is going to be at the final battle ground.

(Post 240 of 15224)   03/23/2003.19:19:42
Author :
Keuck
Yes, but nevertheless, the market seems to want to see the positive side or the glass-half-full side to any piece of news that emerge. Take for example how little the market took into consideration the fact that Mr Bush twice said on prime-time television on two different occasions that the war may take longer than what many expect.

So it would not be all that surprising if the market continues to rally -- albeit with minor corrections here and there -- even if Baghdad proves to be a hard nut to crack.

The lesson the market has taught investors over the past week is that when it wants to rally, nothing can stop it, not even news concerning economic fundamentals or war.

(Post 241 of 15224)   03/23/2003.20:32:54
Author :
Soudesne
i think so too, all the capital flight out of the market for the past many many months is coming back as there is more clarity to the future than before, and its coming back really quick, no one wants to "miss the boat", probably more rally before small correction?

(Post 242 of 15224)   03/23/2003.21:29:22
Author :
Keuck
Yep, there is still a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines. Some have chosen to fire a few bullets in the prevailing rally, whilst others, have conserved their bullets and waiting for a minor technical correction to go in big time.

The only thing is to be careful not to let the "don't want to miss the boat" mentality overwhelms oneself to the extent that silly mistakes are made. There is an abundance of wealth to be grabbed in the market, and the white elephant appears more frequent than one would imagine.

(Post 243 of 15224)   03/23/2003.21:45:04
Author :
Asw308
I have went thru the news at FOX and CNN, the war does not seems to have gone smoothly for US/UK.

(Post 244 of 15224)   03/23/2003.22:03:06
Author :
Mephisto
Experts are divided over where the market is heading next week.

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/thecomingweek/10075956.html

(Post 245 of 15224)   03/23/2003.22:15:40
Author :
Asw308
hmm..will slowly reduce holdings in the blue chips..Will
shift some funds to Amtek.

(Post 246 of 15224)   03/23/2003.22:17:48
Author :
Keuck
Asw308, what is your target for Amtek?

(Post 247 of 15224)   03/23/2003.23:28:57
Author :
Keuck
One plausible effect on the market if the war does get bloody, with many casualties on the side of the US-UK coalition, is that investors will use it as an excuse to take profit. However, on any sign that the war would be won soon, the market will use that as an excuse to rally some more.

This scenario seems rather inhumane, especially when many deaths would be involved, but is not at all impossible.

(Post 248 of 15224)   03/24/2003.00:02:31
Author :
Asw308
Hi Keuck

For Amtek, I don see any resistance until the upper band of 90-100 cents.
I think the selling for AMTEK has been overdone previosuly

(Post 249 of 15224)   03/24/2003.00:24:55
Author :
Keuck
Asw308, I think you might be right. My target of $0.93 might be a bit conservative. The MACD movement is looking very positive.

(Post 250 of 15224)   03/24/2003.09:46:01
Author :
Sipost1
Reproduced with permission from Kelive

24 Mar 9:00AM :

Reality Check on Short-Term War Euphoria Soon...

US Market Wrap - Dow 8521.97 +235.17pts (+2.84%), Nasdaq 1421.84 +19.07pts (+1.36%)




US markets rallied to end the week on a strong note. The market was optimistic that US coalition forces may enter Baghdad by weekend. Oil price & gold futures fell. Incidentally, last Friday was ?triple witching' day. Airline stocks powered 13.5% higher. The SOX added 2.15%. Dow movers included Caterpillar (+3.7%), GE (+3.8%), JP Morgan (+4.8%) and Disney (+9%). Honeywell defied a downgrade to end 1.82% higher. Dupont gained 5.2% after the company reaffirmed its Q1 profit targets. Tech movers included IBM (+3.28%), Microsoft (+1.21%), Intel (+3.44%) and Dell (+2.41%). However, Adobe suffered 6% following a downgrade.



After the bell:


Northwest Airlines announced it would eliminate 4,900 jobs and cut flight schedules by 12% due to a decline in travel.

United Airlines announced that said it will cut flight schedules by 18%, citing war as the reason for the decline in demand travel



Day in Review (STI last closed 1326.15)



News of the US war effort facing stiff resistance, several setbacks pertaining to flight safety and internal sabotage could put a short pause to the war relief rally. Thus far, the market had been anticipating a swift & decisive victory for the coalition forces, possibly reaching Baghdad by weekend (already passed) or Tuesday. The incidents over the weekend could be a reality check on the recent euphoria.



Stocks could open the day higher on the back of overnight gains on Wall Street but we do not rule out profiting taking in the day/s ahead, allowing gains in the past 2 weeks to consolidate first and the overheating short-term to cool off, before the market attempts to regain its upward momentum. Technically, we are looking at 1292~1302 to provide support for the pullback.





In the News

Guoco Land (0.73) retuned to profitability in the H1 with a net profit of S$10.725mil versus a net loss of S$183.296mil. The company said it expects to remain profitable in H2. Stock could test the 0.76~0.77 level.



Stocks to Watch

OCBC (9.90)- 10~10.1 could limit immediate upside. Support at 9.4~9.5 should limit pullbacks in coming days, before the stock attempts to scale higher.



Property stocks

1. Capitaland (1.19)- Stock could head to 1.24/1.25 and pullback from there. Immediate support 1.13.

2. CityDev (3.96)- 3.82~3.86 should limit pullbacks. Technically, stock could still head towards 4.16 in the days/week ahead.

note: Brokers' reports are reproduced with the permission from the various broking companies. ShareInvestor does not endorse or edit any of these reports.


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